The Cy Young finalists have been announced, and, lo and behold there are two Nationals on the list. Not Blake Treinen and Shawn Kelley. Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer.
Which should win?
Either would be a good candidate, but to me Strasburg is the best pitcher on the staff, and in fact the best pitcher in the National League. I cannot recall one bad Strasburg outing all year. Max seemed to have a couple of clunkers. Not many, mind you, but a couple.
Strasburg went 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA in 2017. 204 Strikeouts in 175.1 innings. His four losses:
April 29, NYM. 5-3 loss 7 innings, 3 ER
June 7, LAD 2-1 loss 6 innings, 1 ER
July 8, Atlanta 13-0 loss 3 innings, 3 ER
August 19 San Diego 3-1 loss. 6 innings, 2 ER
In his losses, Strasburg pitched 22 innings and gave up 9 ER., a 3.68 ERA. If you take out that one clunker against Atlanta, he pitched 19 innings and gave up 6 ER, for an ERA of 2.84. IN HIS LOSSES.
This is an amazingly consistent, dominant pitcher.
Max certainly also had a deserving year, going 16-6 with a 2.51 ERA. A few more innings,, and an almost identical record. But lets examine Max's six losses:
April 12, St. L, 6-1 loss 6 innings, 1 ER
April 28, NYM, 7-5 loss 6 innings, 5 ER
May 20, Atlanta 5-2 loss 5 innings, 3ER
June 11, Texas 5-1 loss 7.1 innings, 2 ER
June 21, Miami, 2-1 loss 8 innings, 2 ER
Sep. 13, Atlanta 8-2 loss 6 innings, 7 ER
In his losses, Max pitched 38.1 and gave up 20 runs, for an ERA of 4.69.
Admittedly, this is splitting hairs and there is a strong argument for Max because he pitched approximately 20 more innings than Stras. And, admittedly, I'm a big Strasburg guy, he is a 'true Nat' whilst Max seems more like the hired gun. I prefer the 'just go pitch' style of Strasburg to the theatrics of Max. So I may not be unbiased, but I'd give the Cy Young to Stephen Strasburg.
By a nose.
Thursday, November 9, 2017
Saturday, November 4, 2017
The W & W Boys
With the Hot Stove warming up, there were a few pieces of Nats news over the past day. One, from impeccable source Jon Heyman, notes that it is possible that Jayson Werth returns to the Nats on a one year deal. The other, from John Feinstein (a New York Yankee reporter), was about the status of Matt Wieters, who has an option to extend his contract for one year. Feinstein at first reported on Friday that Wieters had opted to return to the Nats; a few hours later this report was revoked.
I personally hope both Werth and Wieters return next season.
I don't know why a certain portion of the fan base has turned on Jayson Werth. Even injured, he remained the heart and soul of the team in 2017. He was performing at a good rate before an early June injury in Oakland. When he returned ,he had one monster game against the Marlins, but struggled the rest of the year at the bat. He also will be remembered not so fondly for missing a ball in the lights in Game 5. But are two off months enough to write off Jayson Werth? Not to me. He's done so much for the organization, is a fan favorite, a leader in the clubhouse. This is said to be a 'must' year for the Nats in 2018. Do you rip the heart out of an organization by letting a team leader go in a 'must' year? Does Werth have the physical ability to bounce back after an injury riddled season? Don't bet against Jayson.
I also hope Matt Wieters returns. How many times during 2017 have the top Nats pitchers praised the pitch calling of Matt Wieters. You know, guys like Strasburg and Scherzer. Wieters also fielded the position much better than his predessor. Apparently Buffaloes can't catch a throw from a cut off man when there is a play at the plate. Wieters made a lot of good plays throughout the season and seemed to be steady force that the Nats have lacked since the carefree days of Brian Schneider. I know his batting was not good the second half, but perhaps with a little more rest and another year under his belt in the Senior Circuit, his batting stats go back up to Wieters norms. Who's the alternative if Wieters walks? Pedro Severino? He didn't do anything to improve his stock this past season? Wellington Castillo? No, thanks.
Both of the W&W boys have the 'clutch' gene, too. That thing you can't quantify by logging onto BaseballReference.com When the game is on the line, I'll take Werth or Wieters in the batters box over many others.
Sometimes the best change is no change at all. I hope the Nats keep these two valuable veterans around for the all important 2018 season.
I personally hope both Werth and Wieters return next season.
I don't know why a certain portion of the fan base has turned on Jayson Werth. Even injured, he remained the heart and soul of the team in 2017. He was performing at a good rate before an early June injury in Oakland. When he returned ,he had one monster game against the Marlins, but struggled the rest of the year at the bat. He also will be remembered not so fondly for missing a ball in the lights in Game 5. But are two off months enough to write off Jayson Werth? Not to me. He's done so much for the organization, is a fan favorite, a leader in the clubhouse. This is said to be a 'must' year for the Nats in 2018. Do you rip the heart out of an organization by letting a team leader go in a 'must' year? Does Werth have the physical ability to bounce back after an injury riddled season? Don't bet against Jayson.
I also hope Matt Wieters returns. How many times during 2017 have the top Nats pitchers praised the pitch calling of Matt Wieters. You know, guys like Strasburg and Scherzer. Wieters also fielded the position much better than his predessor. Apparently Buffaloes can't catch a throw from a cut off man when there is a play at the plate. Wieters made a lot of good plays throughout the season and seemed to be steady force that the Nats have lacked since the carefree days of Brian Schneider. I know his batting was not good the second half, but perhaps with a little more rest and another year under his belt in the Senior Circuit, his batting stats go back up to Wieters norms. Who's the alternative if Wieters walks? Pedro Severino? He didn't do anything to improve his stock this past season? Wellington Castillo? No, thanks.
Both of the W&W boys have the 'clutch' gene, too. That thing you can't quantify by logging onto BaseballReference.com When the game is on the line, I'll take Werth or Wieters in the batters box over many others.
Sometimes the best change is no change at all. I hope the Nats keep these two valuable veterans around for the all important 2018 season.
Friday, November 3, 2017
Thoughts on Dave Martinez's Presser
I feel like a voter waking up the next morning after Election Day when his candidate did not win. You know, the election is over, but lets try to find some good in the guy who we didn't want.
Now not much can be gleaned from an introductory press conference other than a photo op for the new guy so his face can be shown without a photo shopped hat. But, in the midst of all the clichés (he believes in communication, etc.) a couple of things stood out that I liked.
One, he has confidence. The good kind. He calmly responded to a question about his selection by stating that he knew he was selected based upon the merit of his performance in the past as a coach and could hardly wait to get started.
Two, he does seem to be a people person. He acknowledged Charlie Slowes from the crowd during the Q&A's and after the presser was over, before approaching the press, before even approaching Ted Lerner, he went over to Charlie and gave him a big bear hug. Presumably they know each other from Tampa Bay Devil Rays days. I was impressed that Dave/Davey, in his biggest moment to date, found it most important to greet an old friend before blowing his own horn.
Three, he is a likeable fellow. He is humble. He looked people in the eye.
On the other hand....
I still don't know what makes him qualified. All I gleamed from the presser is that the belief around Nationals Park these days is that Joe Maddon walks on water and Joe found Dave/Davey worthy to stand in his presence. It also sounded like Martinez was something of a hit man for Maddon -- if its bad news, good ol' Joe sent Dave/Davey to deliver it. Rizzo likes Joe Maddon -- you know, the guy that recommended Yunel Escobar for Tyler Clippard. Davey like Joe Maddon - -the guy that gave him a start in coaching. All well and good. I can stand next to Max Scherzer. Doesn't mean I'm going to throw a no-no.
Also in the presser it came out that Dave/Davey is big on analytics, but understands not to give players too much information. I'm not sure what this means. You have info but don't share it. Maybe this makes sense to a ballplayer, but I'm not sure that it makes sense to me.
I found myself really liking Dave Martinez personally but cringing ever time his former employers or boss was brought up. Hopefully in time the homage to Joe Maddon will die down and Dave Martinez, with his own staff and responsibilities, discovers his own niche. He's got a year to do to it. GO!
Now not much can be gleaned from an introductory press conference other than a photo op for the new guy so his face can be shown without a photo shopped hat. But, in the midst of all the clichés (he believes in communication, etc.) a couple of things stood out that I liked.
One, he has confidence. The good kind. He calmly responded to a question about his selection by stating that he knew he was selected based upon the merit of his performance in the past as a coach and could hardly wait to get started.
Two, he does seem to be a people person. He acknowledged Charlie Slowes from the crowd during the Q&A's and after the presser was over, before approaching the press, before even approaching Ted Lerner, he went over to Charlie and gave him a big bear hug. Presumably they know each other from Tampa Bay Devil Rays days. I was impressed that Dave/Davey, in his biggest moment to date, found it most important to greet an old friend before blowing his own horn.
Three, he is a likeable fellow. He is humble. He looked people in the eye.
On the other hand....
I still don't know what makes him qualified. All I gleamed from the presser is that the belief around Nationals Park these days is that Joe Maddon walks on water and Joe found Dave/Davey worthy to stand in his presence. It also sounded like Martinez was something of a hit man for Maddon -- if its bad news, good ol' Joe sent Dave/Davey to deliver it. Rizzo likes Joe Maddon -- you know, the guy that recommended Yunel Escobar for Tyler Clippard. Davey like Joe Maddon - -the guy that gave him a start in coaching. All well and good. I can stand next to Max Scherzer. Doesn't mean I'm going to throw a no-no.
Also in the presser it came out that Dave/Davey is big on analytics, but understands not to give players too much information. I'm not sure what this means. You have info but don't share it. Maybe this makes sense to a ballplayer, but I'm not sure that it makes sense to me.
I found myself really liking Dave Martinez personally but cringing ever time his former employers or boss was brought up. Hopefully in time the homage to Joe Maddon will die down and Dave Martinez, with his own staff and responsibilities, discovers his own niche. He's got a year to do to it. GO!
Monday, October 30, 2017
There is a guy with a Cubs hat on my blog
The formal announcement of Dave Martinez came today. The press conference is coming sometime after the World Series. The last manager press conference came on my birthday, November 5. It was a nice present -- a little bit of Nats-dom in what already seemed like a long off season in 2015. Dusty Baker was coming. Smiling, happy and experienced. I hadn't seen Dusty's shortcomings first hand yet (see Solis, Sammy, (2017) and Kelley, Shawn (2016)) but I had experienced a choking by a rented closer and a whole lot of Clint Robinson.
This feels more like 2013 than 2015. Only worse. I thought Matt Williams would be a good manager. The guy they picked him over was Dave Martinez. The DC Sports Bog guy reminded me why by posting a quote. Maybe it was this one:
Or maybe it was this one:
I keep hoping to see exactly what makes Dave Martinez "progressive" and "no one better suited" apart from standing next to Joe Maddon for ten years. He wasn't as progressive as Matt Williams, nor, when they both were candidates, was Martinez judged to be the best suited. What changed? Hopefully someone in the press will ask Mike Rizzo that question, and Mike will have a good answer.
David Ross likes this hire. Because, you know, he understands Stephen Strasburg so well. And because you know that any dancer on Dancing with the Stars has the welfare of the Washington Nationals foremost on his or her mind. Besides, I'm sure that its just a coincidence that Dave Martinez was standing beside Joe Maddon when David Ross played on the Cubs. The Nationals are going to do some "amazing things" says Grandpa Rossie.
And I thought the Vin Scully first pitch skit was nauseating. I guess if a backup catcher posts a photo of a coach hugging him, that qualifies the coach to manage. The last thing I was hoping for was to have the Cub virus injected into my Nationals veins.
Let's hope this works out better than I'm expecting it will.
Update, 2 pm. At least they got the Cubs hat off of him.
Sunday, October 29, 2017
Why i didn't want Dave Martinez
Reports surfaced Sunday morning that Dave Martinez will be named the next manager of the Washington Nationals. Looks like I was wrong when I gave the Lerners and Mike Rizzo credit for wanting to upgrade the manager's position. I'm disappointed. I don't know much about Dave Martinez, and will hope he does well. But I have reservations about him.
For one thing, two organizations that were familiar with Martinez did not select him to be their manager, and opted for an equally inexperienced manager outside their organizational structure instead of hiring Martinez. The Martinez tale began when Andrew Friedman left the Rays after the 2014 season to take over the Dodgers operation. This lead to Joe Maddon also leaving Tampa for the loveable Cubbies. So the Rays needed a new manager after 2014. They were happy with Maddon. Martinez was there. He was a top candidate. He knew the players. He wasn't expensive. But they went in another direction, choosing Kevin Cash from the Indians staff. Why didn't the Rays name Martinez manager then?
Fast forward one year. The Dodgers parted ways with Don Mattingly. Maddon was safely with the Cubs, but Martinez was available and interviewed for the Dodgers post. Friedman was familiar with him. Martinez was passed over. Not for Gabe Kapler, ,who was the leading candidate in house for the Dodgers at the time. But for Dave Roberts, who was a coach for the San Diego Padres. Why did another executive from Tampa pass over Martinez if he was qualified and familiar?
Another reason I question this move is Martinez's actual qualifications. Do you know what they are? I don't. From what I see, his qualifications are essentially being Joe Maddon's bench coach. Anyone reading this knows I don't like Maddon. He is a self-promoter that pulls stunts for media promotion -- penguins in the clubhouse, getting the players to dress like princesses and the like. Maddon's in game management is as poor as Dusty Baker's was. I'll see your Sammy Solis and raise you a Carl Edwards Jr. I'll put an outfielder that makes Adam Dunn look like a Gold Glove left fielder in my lineup. I'll run Aroldis Chapman's arm into the ground no matter how many hits he gives up. So what I see here is that the Nats let a manager go who was experienced, a good clubhouse man who made bad in game decisions, to hire an inexperienced man who's claim to fame is assisting a manager who is good in the clubhouse but makes bad in game decisions. I don't think this makes sense.
What has Martinez ever done in baseball that merits this selection? Carry Joe Maddon's bags? Help Joe get the rattlesnake out of Tropicana Field? Kevin Long was an inexperienced candidate but I know what he did. Helped Yankees and Mets hitters -- Curtis Granderson and Daniel Murphy being two of his pupils. The only other known candidate who was interviewed, John Farrell, led the Red Sox to the World Series and was a highly respected pitching coach. What makes Martinez qualified? His middling 1980s-90s career? He knows Wade Boggs? I'm not saying Martinez isn't qualified, but I sure have not heard not now and not ever what makes Martinez suited for the position. Hopefully the Nats will explain this in the press conference introducing him to the local media. .
Finally, keep in mind that Martinez interviewed for the manager's job with the Nationals before. After 2013. He was not hired because Nats management decided that Matt Williams was more equipped to run the Nats than Dave Martinez. Remember how well the Matt Williams hire went? Well we just hired the guy who wasn't as good.
I hope Martinez does well and I hope next year everyone reading this can look back on it and point out how wrong I am here. But to my eyes, on October 29,2017 this supports the Jon Heyman's of the world who are quick to criticize the Nats for their failure to obtain a top manager because they don't want to pay him.
Jon Heyman was the first to report this hire. Of course.
For one thing, two organizations that were familiar with Martinez did not select him to be their manager, and opted for an equally inexperienced manager outside their organizational structure instead of hiring Martinez. The Martinez tale began when Andrew Friedman left the Rays after the 2014 season to take over the Dodgers operation. This lead to Joe Maddon also leaving Tampa for the loveable Cubbies. So the Rays needed a new manager after 2014. They were happy with Maddon. Martinez was there. He was a top candidate. He knew the players. He wasn't expensive. But they went in another direction, choosing Kevin Cash from the Indians staff. Why didn't the Rays name Martinez manager then?
Fast forward one year. The Dodgers parted ways with Don Mattingly. Maddon was safely with the Cubs, but Martinez was available and interviewed for the Dodgers post. Friedman was familiar with him. Martinez was passed over. Not for Gabe Kapler, ,who was the leading candidate in house for the Dodgers at the time. But for Dave Roberts, who was a coach for the San Diego Padres. Why did another executive from Tampa pass over Martinez if he was qualified and familiar?
Another reason I question this move is Martinez's actual qualifications. Do you know what they are? I don't. From what I see, his qualifications are essentially being Joe Maddon's bench coach. Anyone reading this knows I don't like Maddon. He is a self-promoter that pulls stunts for media promotion -- penguins in the clubhouse, getting the players to dress like princesses and the like. Maddon's in game management is as poor as Dusty Baker's was. I'll see your Sammy Solis and raise you a Carl Edwards Jr. I'll put an outfielder that makes Adam Dunn look like a Gold Glove left fielder in my lineup. I'll run Aroldis Chapman's arm into the ground no matter how many hits he gives up. So what I see here is that the Nats let a manager go who was experienced, a good clubhouse man who made bad in game decisions, to hire an inexperienced man who's claim to fame is assisting a manager who is good in the clubhouse but makes bad in game decisions. I don't think this makes sense.
What has Martinez ever done in baseball that merits this selection? Carry Joe Maddon's bags? Help Joe get the rattlesnake out of Tropicana Field? Kevin Long was an inexperienced candidate but I know what he did. Helped Yankees and Mets hitters -- Curtis Granderson and Daniel Murphy being two of his pupils. The only other known candidate who was interviewed, John Farrell, led the Red Sox to the World Series and was a highly respected pitching coach. What makes Martinez qualified? His middling 1980s-90s career? He knows Wade Boggs? I'm not saying Martinez isn't qualified, but I sure have not heard not now and not ever what makes Martinez suited for the position. Hopefully the Nats will explain this in the press conference introducing him to the local media. .
Finally, keep in mind that Martinez interviewed for the manager's job with the Nationals before. After 2013. He was not hired because Nats management decided that Matt Williams was more equipped to run the Nats than Dave Martinez. Remember how well the Matt Williams hire went? Well we just hired the guy who wasn't as good.
I hope Martinez does well and I hope next year everyone reading this can look back on it and point out how wrong I am here. But to my eyes, on October 29,2017 this supports the Jon Heyman's of the world who are quick to criticize the Nats for their failure to obtain a top manager because they don't want to pay him.
Jon Heyman was the first to report this hire. Of course.
Starting over
The Nats need another starter. Not Edwin Jackson. Not (yet) Eric Fedde. A real fifth starter. With this in mind, I looked up the FA starting pitchers and have a few knee jerk reactions on whether they'd fit with the Curly W.
Jake Arrieta (32) Will command too much
Christian Bergman (30) Who? Journeyman. Not good enough.
Mike Bolsinger (30) He's a Dodger. He might be one of the faceless pitchers that relieve the starters nightly but I can't prove that he is.
Clay Buchholz (33) I thought he was dead. Maybe a spring training invite flyer
Trevor Cahill (30) This guy was a pretty good D Back and a reasonably good Cub reliever last year, I believe. I'd try him, but I don't know if I'd use him as a starter or reliever.
Andrew Cashner (31). He was traded for Anthony Rizzo. He's not consistent but if he's available I think he'd be usable.
Jhoulys Chacin (30) Didn't Ian Desmond hit him in the head once? He's bounced around and doesn't even start anymore.
Tyler Chatwood (28) Rockies pitcher. He's been good at times, not so much at other times. Was this the Coors Field effect? Maybe. Was it the pitcher's own inconsistency? Maybe. Should the Nats take a chance on him? Maybe.
Jesse Chavez (34).. Journeyman
Alex Cobb (30) This is the best guy on the list other than the 'stars'. I'd like him but I bet someone gives him a contract worthy of a number one.
Josh Collmenter (32) He's never maintained any consistency. But he's had a few moments. Might be this year's "Lightning in a Bottle" but I wouldn't risk it.
Bartolo Colon (45) Please retire. The "Big Sexy" bit isn't funny.
Johnny Cueto (32) — Not going to accept a back of the rotation salary
Yu Darvish (31) Did you see Game 3?
R.A. Dickey (43) Aside from the fact I hate watching him pitch, its not that bad an idea.
Nathan Eovaldi (28) — $2MM club option. We already have an injured fifth starter. Don't need another.
Scott Feldman (35). The Orioles think he's better than Jake Arrieta. I don't.
Doug Fister (34). I think Doug was good as a Nat and seemed to be reasonably good as a Red Sock. But Mike Rizzo generally doesn't chew his cabbage twice. And there must be a reason he's bounced around so much.
Yovani Gallardo (32) — Has a club option but if he's free, he's not for me.
Jaime Garcia (31) Maybe. Teams looking for pitching more than the Nats might pay more, though
.
Matt Garza (34) Was but not is. Has been. No thanks.
Dillon Gee (32) I always thought he was reasonably good as a Met. I'd give him a shot either as a starter or in the bullpen.
Miguel Gonzalez (34) Too Oriole.
Jeremy Hellickson (31) Bad Oriole.
Derek Holland (31) Pitches like an Oriole.
David Holmberg (26) Wasn't he a frequent guest of Mike Douglas in the '70s? A producer on Seinfeld? No? Well, he was traded FOR Edwin Jackson. Think about THAT.
Drew Hutchison (27) I would definitely sign this guy and give him a chance. I was always impressed with him when he was a Blue Jay. I think he could be 'fixed'.
Ubaldo Jimenez (34) Not good enough for the Orioles. So obviously not good enough for the Nats.
John Lackey (39) Maybe if there's an old timers game.
Francisco Liriano (34) Might be a cheap option but he hasn't been particularly good as an Astro.
Jeff Locke (30) A face in the crowd. I think he was a bad Pirate.
Jordan Lyles (27). Rockies pitchers might do well out of Coors Field
Lance Lynn (31) Already has a big moment at Nats Park. He'd be perfect but probably will get more to be a Top 2 starter elsewhere.
Miles Mikolas (29) he pitches in Japan and is nicknamed "Lizard King". That's a no.
Wade Miley (31) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout. Too Oriole.
Mike Minor (30) — $10MM mutual option with a $1.25MM buyout. I remember this guy being fairly good for the Braves. He's apparently oft injured and a Royals reliever, so probably not an option.
Ricky Nolasco (35) — $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout. Was so bad the Twins gave the Angels Alex Meyer just to take him.
Wily Peralta (29) A pretty good Brewer. Probably someone desperate for pitching will overpay. I'm not sure why the Brewers haven't re-upped him.
Martin Perez (27) — $6MM club option with a $2.45MM buyout
Michael Pineda (29). Injury risk.
Tyson Ross -- Wasn't good with the Rangers but maybe on a non-roster contract.
CC Sabathia (37) -- Wants to be a Yankee
Anibal Sanchez (34) Can back up John Lackey in the Old Timers Game.
Hector Santiago (30) not good enough for the Twins?
Masahiro Tanaka (29) — Can opt out of the remaining three years, $67MM on his contract. A TJ injury waiting to happen.
Chris Tillman (30). Might be good for a year contract to try to reclaim his career. And if he was good, it would really annoy Peter Angelos. I'd do it.
Josh Tomlin (33) — $3MM club option with a $750K buyout
Jacob Turner (27). We've seen him once. It was enough.
Jason Vargas (35) Kind of guy the Orioles would sign in March
Hideaki Wakui (32). A Japanese pitcher I've never seen. 32 year old rookie isn't a good idea though
.
Asher Wojciechowski (29) An Astros pitcher I'm not familiar with. I see a lot of them in Spring Training, and I have no memory of this guy, so I don't know what is wrong this gentleman.
Chris Young (39) He couldn't get out of Syracuse before, why would he now?
There are a few pitchers I'd like to see come to DC as a fifth starter that are available and realistic possibilities. Alex Cobb, Jamie Garcia, Chris Tillman, Drew Hutchinson ,Lance Lynn, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Jordan Miles, Tyler Chatwood,and Dillon Gee. Rizzo won't bring in all of them. If he gets one of the top people on this list like Cobb or Lynn, he only needs one of them.
Jake Arrieta (32) Will command too much
Christian Bergman (30) Who? Journeyman. Not good enough.
Mike Bolsinger (30) He's a Dodger. He might be one of the faceless pitchers that relieve the starters nightly but I can't prove that he is.
Clay Buchholz (33) I thought he was dead. Maybe a spring training invite flyer
Trevor Cahill (30) This guy was a pretty good D Back and a reasonably good Cub reliever last year, I believe. I'd try him, but I don't know if I'd use him as a starter or reliever.
Andrew Cashner (31). He was traded for Anthony Rizzo. He's not consistent but if he's available I think he'd be usable.
Jhoulys Chacin (30) Didn't Ian Desmond hit him in the head once? He's bounced around and doesn't even start anymore.
Tyler Chatwood (28) Rockies pitcher. He's been good at times, not so much at other times. Was this the Coors Field effect? Maybe. Was it the pitcher's own inconsistency? Maybe. Should the Nats take a chance on him? Maybe.
Jesse Chavez (34).. Journeyman
Alex Cobb (30) This is the best guy on the list other than the 'stars'. I'd like him but I bet someone gives him a contract worthy of a number one.
Josh Collmenter (32) He's never maintained any consistency. But he's had a few moments. Might be this year's "Lightning in a Bottle" but I wouldn't risk it.
Bartolo Colon (45) Please retire. The "Big Sexy" bit isn't funny.
Johnny Cueto (32) — Not going to accept a back of the rotation salary
Yu Darvish (31) Did you see Game 3?
R.A. Dickey (43) Aside from the fact I hate watching him pitch, its not that bad an idea.
Nathan Eovaldi (28) — $2MM club option. We already have an injured fifth starter. Don't need another.
Scott Feldman (35). The Orioles think he's better than Jake Arrieta. I don't.
Doug Fister (34). I think Doug was good as a Nat and seemed to be reasonably good as a Red Sock. But Mike Rizzo generally doesn't chew his cabbage twice. And there must be a reason he's bounced around so much.
Yovani Gallardo (32) — Has a club option but if he's free, he's not for me.
Jaime Garcia (31) Maybe. Teams looking for pitching more than the Nats might pay more, though
.
Matt Garza (34) Was but not is. Has been. No thanks.
Dillon Gee (32) I always thought he was reasonably good as a Met. I'd give him a shot either as a starter or in the bullpen.
Miguel Gonzalez (34) Too Oriole.
Jeremy Hellickson (31) Bad Oriole.
Derek Holland (31) Pitches like an Oriole.
David Holmberg (26) Wasn't he a frequent guest of Mike Douglas in the '70s? A producer on Seinfeld? No? Well, he was traded FOR Edwin Jackson. Think about THAT.
Drew Hutchison (27) I would definitely sign this guy and give him a chance. I was always impressed with him when he was a Blue Jay. I think he could be 'fixed'.
Ubaldo Jimenez (34) Not good enough for the Orioles. So obviously not good enough for the Nats.
John Lackey (39) Maybe if there's an old timers game.
Francisco Liriano (34) Might be a cheap option but he hasn't been particularly good as an Astro.
Jeff Locke (30) A face in the crowd. I think he was a bad Pirate.
Jordan Lyles (27). Rockies pitchers might do well out of Coors Field
Lance Lynn (31) Already has a big moment at Nats Park. He'd be perfect but probably will get more to be a Top 2 starter elsewhere.
Miles Mikolas (29) he pitches in Japan and is nicknamed "Lizard King". That's a no.
Wade Miley (31) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout. Too Oriole.
Mike Minor (30) — $10MM mutual option with a $1.25MM buyout. I remember this guy being fairly good for the Braves. He's apparently oft injured and a Royals reliever, so probably not an option.
Ricky Nolasco (35) — $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout. Was so bad the Twins gave the Angels Alex Meyer just to take him.
Wily Peralta (29) A pretty good Brewer. Probably someone desperate for pitching will overpay. I'm not sure why the Brewers haven't re-upped him.
Martin Perez (27) — $6MM club option with a $2.45MM buyout
Michael Pineda (29). Injury risk.
Tyson Ross -- Wasn't good with the Rangers but maybe on a non-roster contract.
CC Sabathia (37) -- Wants to be a Yankee
Anibal Sanchez (34) Can back up John Lackey in the Old Timers Game.
Hector Santiago (30) not good enough for the Twins?
Masahiro Tanaka (29) — Can opt out of the remaining three years, $67MM on his contract. A TJ injury waiting to happen.
Chris Tillman (30). Might be good for a year contract to try to reclaim his career. And if he was good, it would really annoy Peter Angelos. I'd do it.
Josh Tomlin (33) — $3MM club option with a $750K buyout
Jacob Turner (27). We've seen him once. It was enough.
Jason Vargas (35) Kind of guy the Orioles would sign in March
Hideaki Wakui (32). A Japanese pitcher I've never seen. 32 year old rookie isn't a good idea though
.
Asher Wojciechowski (29) An Astros pitcher I'm not familiar with. I see a lot of them in Spring Training, and I have no memory of this guy, so I don't know what is wrong this gentleman.
Chris Young (39) He couldn't get out of Syracuse before, why would he now?
There are a few pitchers I'd like to see come to DC as a fifth starter that are available and realistic possibilities. Alex Cobb, Jamie Garcia, Chris Tillman, Drew Hutchinson ,Lance Lynn, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Jordan Miles, Tyler Chatwood,and Dillon Gee. Rizzo won't bring in all of them. If he gets one of the top people on this list like Cobb or Lynn, he only needs one of them.
Friday, October 27, 2017
Nats Will Get Joe Girardi.
I always get a good chuckle at reading Jon Heyman. If the Nationals found a cure for cancer, Heyman's headline would be "Nationals Brass Cruelly Hang On To Cancer Cure, Leaving Millions to Die." Jon, a supposed journalist, dislikes the Nationals about as much as Elaine Benes dislikes The English Patient.
So, today, Jon, tweets the following "information": "initial word hearing out of DC is that girardi is "not likely." for one, nats don't believe in paying big bucks to manager." And this tweet is being cited in credible places, like the excellent MLB Trade Rumors website, as an actual "update".
But really, what does this tweet say? Are these internal sources? Or did Jon call someone who lives in DC who told him what he wanted to hear? Jon also tweeted recently that the Nats were "weeks behind" the other teams in their managerial search. Weeks means more than one. Baker was informed he wouldn't be returning on October 20. Two weeks before October 20 is October 6. Thus, just doing the math, and putting two and two together, Jon Heyman claims the Nats mismanaged their decision on Baker because they didn't let him go before the NLDS even began.
Well, sorry, Jon. I think you're going to be proven wrong here. The Lerners aren't cheap. They put resources where they think they are most important. And clearly, here, no matter what managerial decisions they made on Jim Riggleman or Manny Acta 10 years ago, they, at this point, consider the manager to be key to a World Series victory. It would have been easy to keep Dusty Baker. They didn't do the easy thing.
They felt they needed someone to teach the team how to win. They signed Jayson Werth to a $126 million contract. Then, in 2014/15, they felt they another starter. They signed Max Scherzer to a contract over $200 million. They felt they needed a closer in 2017. They increased payroll to get Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. And Brandon Kintzler.
The decision not to retain Dusty showed that they now feel they need a manager who can get the most out of the players in the games that mean the most. The Nationals method of operation in this instance isn't to skimp, rather, the exact opposite. They go get the best man available.
Joe Girardi.
Of course there is no guarantee of anything here. But if past behavior predicts the future, we'll see Joe G in West Palm Beach in March.
P.S. Update from Chelsea Janes, with real information on Girardi. "The Nationals pursued Girardi when they first moved to D.C., but were still unsure of the veteran’s interest in managing as of Friday morning, according to a person familiar with the situation." Janes also reports "Nationals ownership might be willing to provide a longer deal (than two years) to their next manager, in part because of the state of the market."
So, today, Jon, tweets the following "information": "initial word hearing out of DC is that girardi is "not likely." for one, nats don't believe in paying big bucks to manager." And this tweet is being cited in credible places, like the excellent MLB Trade Rumors website, as an actual "update".
But really, what does this tweet say? Are these internal sources? Or did Jon call someone who lives in DC who told him what he wanted to hear? Jon also tweeted recently that the Nats were "weeks behind" the other teams in their managerial search. Weeks means more than one. Baker was informed he wouldn't be returning on October 20. Two weeks before October 20 is October 6. Thus, just doing the math, and putting two and two together, Jon Heyman claims the Nats mismanaged their decision on Baker because they didn't let him go before the NLDS even began.
Well, sorry, Jon. I think you're going to be proven wrong here. The Lerners aren't cheap. They put resources where they think they are most important. And clearly, here, no matter what managerial decisions they made on Jim Riggleman or Manny Acta 10 years ago, they, at this point, consider the manager to be key to a World Series victory. It would have been easy to keep Dusty Baker. They didn't do the easy thing.
They felt they needed someone to teach the team how to win. They signed Jayson Werth to a $126 million contract. Then, in 2014/15, they felt they another starter. They signed Max Scherzer to a contract over $200 million. They felt they needed a closer in 2017. They increased payroll to get Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. And Brandon Kintzler.
The decision not to retain Dusty showed that they now feel they need a manager who can get the most out of the players in the games that mean the most. The Nationals method of operation in this instance isn't to skimp, rather, the exact opposite. They go get the best man available.
Joe Girardi.
Of course there is no guarantee of anything here. But if past behavior predicts the future, we'll see Joe G in West Palm Beach in March.
P.S. Update from Chelsea Janes, with real information on Girardi. "The Nationals pursued Girardi when they first moved to D.C., but were still unsure of the veteran’s interest in managing as of Friday morning, according to a person familiar with the situation." Janes also reports "Nationals ownership might be willing to provide a longer deal (than two years) to their next manager, in part because of the state of the market."
Saturday, October 21, 2017
With Dusty We Busty
Welcome, welcome back. I wasn't finding the time to keep this blog up for a long time (9 years!) but I have found that for some reason I am having trouble accepting that this season has ended, and thought re-visiting the blog might be good therapy for me (and for anyone reading this). I began this endeavor as a way to exorcise the demons from the NLDS, but midway through, news broke that Dusty Baker was not returning as Nats manager, and I found this actually might be my way of saying "You know, I'm okay with that."
Don't get me wrong. As a guy, I loved Dusty. Everyone loved Dusty. He treated everyone, and I mean EVERYONE with kindness and respect. But man, the playoffs. Everything went wrong. Some of it wasn't Dusty. But some of it was.
For years I joked that I will see Matt Williams taking out Jordan Zimmermann in the ninth inning of Game 2 in the 2014 NLDS on my deathbed. This year, there wasn't that one watershed moment. There were many plays throughout the Cubs series that are sticking in my mind. And I am going to list them for you now.
1. Tony Two Bags "error" in Game 1.
Looked like a foul ball. Handled a little too casually. I know there are many fans that count Rendon as their favorite player and love his 'always smiling' attitude, but to be honest, his lack of apparent fire drives me crazy. Not that he isn't a great player. I just wish he seemed to care as much as I do. And the ball was foul anyway. That play ended up scoring runs, and screwing up a stellar start by Stephen Strasburg. But the ball was foul.
2. Sammy Solis, dammit.
Now I'm getting mad. Game 3 . Scherzer pitching a shutout with a precarious 1 - 0 lead in the bottom of the 7th. Ben Zobrist gets a double. And here comes Dusty. ONE STINKIN' HIT!! HE"S MAX SCHERZER!! Why is he being removed here? You don't trust a Cy Young Award winner to shut down a team he shut down all day because of one hit? Okay, okay. He's coming off an injury. He's near the magic 100 pitch count. Go to the bullpen. I'll get past this.
Now to the bullpen. Prior to mid-July, our bullpen was awful. Not a secret. In mid-July, Mike Rizzo obtained Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson from Oakland. To pitch the 8th and 9th. They have done very well from the get-go. But wait, there's more. Rizzo thought we needed another bullpen piece to shut down the 7th inning. So he trades for Minnesota's closer, and All Star, Brandon Knitzner. Starters get through six. Knitzler, Madson and Doolittle. The firm. T Shirts are printed up. The bullpen is saved. Or so we thought.
Game 3 of the best of 5. Its 1-0 in the SEVENTH. The Cy Young award winner is supposedly spent. So go to the formula that has been near perfect for two months, right? Knitzler, then Madson, then Doolittle. Odds are this will work. If not, tip your hat, this is the moment Mike Rizzo envisioned when he made those trades.
But OH NO!! Let's play the so-called percentages by bringing in a left hander. Sammy Solis. He's been lit up often during the year, when he wasn't hurt. His ERA is over 5.00. He was part of the 'problem' that led to two key July trades. This may be the pivot point of the series. We have three lock down bullpen pieces. WHY IS SAMMY SOLIS ON THE MOUND?
Of course, you know the rest. Solis gives up a hit to tie the game, because Dusty Baker thinks Kyle Schwarber is Babe Ruth and doesn't want to face him in that situation. Kyle is built like Babe Ruth, but hit .200 with one lousy hit in the whole post season. Sammy Solis against anyone is worse than Kyle Schwarber against Knitzler or Doolittle. Game tied. Sammy blew it. BIG SURPRISE!
When I heard that Dusty wasn't retained, two words came to my mind. Sammy Solis.
3. Oliver Perez?
I have two longstanding memories of Oliver Perez. One is from the 2000-2004 period when I would have to go Cincinnati to see my favorite baseball team. Inevitable, trips were planned mid-summer when Pittsburgh was in Cincinnati. It seemed like every time Pittsburgh played Cincinnati Oliver Perez started a game, and pitched a complete game shutout. But that was a long, long time ago. Ken Griffey Jr., Hall of Famer, was a Red. Sean Casey, MLB Network Analyst, was a Red. Aaron Boone, who gets paid to listen to Jessica Mendoza talk on ESPN, was a Red. Adam Dunn was a rookie. Riverfront Stadium still existed.
My other memory of Oliver Perez is in Spring Training, 2011. Lots has happened since I saw Ollie dominate the Reds. A team came to DC. I go to Spring Training. I re-develop a long dormant hatred of the New York Mets. Ollie is pitching against the Nats in Port St. Lucie this day in March 2011, and gets lit up, the likes of which Jeremy Guthrie would be proud of. He couldn't have gotten me out had the Nats decided to hand me a bat. He is booed off the mound more loudly than I've ever heard anyone booed in my life. Louder than Caps fans booing Pittsburgh Penguins. Louder than long suffering spouses forced to attend a John Denver concert. The booing is deafening. And its Spring Training! Ollie was released the next day.
So with these two polar opposite visions in my head, I question why the Nats signed Oliver Perez in the first place. To be fair, after that day in Port St. Lucie, he has bounced around and re-invented himself as a serviceable, but not great, left handed specialist. Rizzo signed him to that role in 2016 and he hasn't been horrible, but he isn't Knitzler, Madson and Doolittle. There are no Ollie T shirts.
So, with a runner in scoring position in the bottom of the eight inning of Game 3, with the score tied, Knitzler is pitching, so you feel somewhat safe. But, wait, one runner on, so Dusty goes to the bullpen. The eighth inning. So it must be Madson right? That would be good. Wait, Dusty wants a left hander. So it must be Doolittle. Dusty must have heard about the Zach Britton fiasco last year, right? But nooooooo. ITS OLIVER PEREZ!!! He was a part of the unacceptable pre-July bullpen too. He's hit or miss. But apparently Dusty's "gut" must have digested too many peaches because he we are again in a win or lose game situation and he's putting in pitchers that were not designed to pitch in the 7th, 8th or 9th. It didn't work an hour ago, so of course its going to work now, right Dusty? And of course what happens? A bloop hit. RESPECT ME!!! When the season is on the line, shouldn't the best pitchers in your bullpen be on the mound? Does Aaron Barrett throwing a wild pitch against the AT&T backdrop in 2014 not haunt anyone but me?
Okay, okay. It was a bloop that could have been caught. But it wasn't. And the Nats lost with Madson and Doolittle never taking the mound in a one run game. Why did Mike Rizzo trade for them again?
4. Speaking of the bloop....
Now that ball has to be caught. F.P. Santangelo said he'd rather have three guys going to the hospital than that ball fall in. I wouldn't. Trea Turner, who's entire series should have the Nats re-evaluating his value, was flagling at the ball like Pee Wee Herman running after his lost bicycle. Jayson Werth wasn't going to get there. Michael A. Taylor, for all his heroics, should have been the one to catch that ball. It was catchable, and he was the centerfielder, who we all know is the take charge guy. Michael did a lot of good things in the series, so I'm not going to bust on him. I think he was somewhat spooked at Turner heading right for him.
5. The Strasburg Shutdown, Part 2.
Okay, this ended up well. Just for one day. We can be heroes. Just for one day. We can be safer Just for one day.
After the game 4 rainout, the Nats had a choice between Strasburg and Roark. The world was calling for Strasburg. Dusty held a press conference after the rainout. Roark is pitching game 4, Dusty says. Strasburg threw a bullpen today Dusty says. Strasburg is not feeling too good to pitch tomorrow, Dusty says. Its the mold in the hotel, Dusty says. John Feinstein is rubbing his hands and re-fueling the fire on his stake to go after Strasburg again. So are everyone on MLB Network, national baseball writers, etc. Strasburg is soft. No one can look Strasburg in the eye says dancing legend and backup catcher David Ross. Strasburg is getting crucified.
Problem is, Dusty had some facts wrong. One, he didn't need to name a starter at all. Two, Strasburg didn't pitch a bullpen the day Dusty said he did, he pitched it the day before. Three ,Strasburg wasn't a little under the weather, he was deathly ill.
It all worked out okay, just for one day. Strasburg woke up healthy enough to pitch and shut everyone up by pitching the game of his life just when the Nats needed it most. But it rendered him unavailable for game 5. If Dusty said nothing about Strasburg and Roark pitched game 4, the Nats may have lost. But if they got to game 5, Strasburg would have been available. Had Dusty not went through the press conference, that may have been an option. But because of the press conference, Strasburg was pretty much forced to pitch game 4 or be crucified again in the press. Which brings us to the Game 5 starter.
6. Shakey had a party that lasted all night...
Gio Gonzales. Loveable guy. Really good to the fans. Wears his heart on his sleeve. Started Game 5 in 2012, which ended up permanently damaging Drew Storen's career. To my mind, if you have to point a finger to blame for that heartbreak, I go straight to Gio. It was 6 - 0. He got rattled. He started walking people. He let the rickshaw down the hill with Newman riding it. Though he was out of the game the damage was done, he started the downhill motion.
Prior to the playoffs, Phil Wood has been spouting off for three weeks that the pitching rotation for the series should be Stras, Gio and then Max. Dave Jaegler, who has baseball knowledge from watching games, not memorizing old statistics, points out that this idea is, um, not the best because Max would not be available for Game 5. Phil ignores Dave's attempt to inject some common sense into the conversation and gleefully points out that his brilliant idea will lead to a sweep. Because the Nats will inevitably sweep the Cubs.
Now its game 5. Unfortunately Max's injury has lead to him essentially being unavailable, except for a couple innings, as Dave had predicted. So now we have Tanner Roark, who pitched a beautiful game for the USA in the World Baseball Classic, and has more, um, guts shall we say, than most pitchers in the National League. Tanner has had a somewhat disappointing regular season, to be sure, but he improved greatly in the second half, and has a bulldog mentality. He's not going to get rattled. You get the idea that Tanner's entire career is playing with house money and he's going to make the most of it. Or....
Or, we have Gio Gonzalez pitching Game 5, just like 2012. Jon Jay, Hot Dog, the first batter, just like 2012. Unlikeable NL Central opponent, just like 2012. Dusty wants Gio to have redemption. Well....
Boom! Boom! Walk! Wild pitch! Gio literally looks like he is going to have a breakdown in the first inning. Everything goes wrong. But, he manages to survive leaving the bases loaded with only one run. Anyone, including the sight impaired, can see that Gio is not emotionally handling this big moment well. But, he only gave one run up, so why pull him? He's going to calm down. Particularly when the Nats gave him a 4-1 lead, right?
Well, we all know what happened in the third inning. Its 2012 all over again. Big lead, Gio panics. So much for redemption. And Tanner Roark never even was given a chance to pitch. The whole 'redemption' thing is so very Dusty. I get it. But once you see Gio is not seizing the moment, and you have a 4-1 lead with a quality starter rested, why do you let him out there to flop and twitch? Get the guy with balls in there. Maybe starting Gio wasn't Dusty's decision alone. But leaving him out there after he did his best Henry Rodriguez impression was all Dusty.
7. Where was he going? What was he thinking?
After Gio's implosion, only one run scored. Then Trea Turner ends up on third base with one out and Bryce Harper up. This run's gotta score right? WRONG! Infield in, Bryce hits a rocket to second base. Trea is breaking to the plate on a ball that NO ONE could have possibly scored on. Instead of runner on third and Zim up, its runner on first. No first inning run. Why did Trea go? Did the moment get too big for him? Was he overconfident that he could outrun a scorching line drive? Did Bob "Send-ly" get greedy? I'm not sure this question was answered, but it was one run we should have scored and did not.
We lost Game 5 by one run.
8. Lonely in your nightmare
If there is one decision I cannot criticize Dusty for, its bringing in Max Scherzer in the fifth inning. Its 4-3, even with Gio's antics. Max is available for two innings. Max pitches two scoreless, then the firm comes in and we win 4-3, even if there are no tack on runs. That was the plan and its viable. But....
So much goes wrong here, and none of it is on Dusty. Javier Baez strikes out with two outs in the inning. Javier Baez is going to kill someone one day, because his swing is out of control and more than once a catcher's head has felt the brunt of his lack of control. This time, it was Matt Wieters. Catcher's interference, you can't hit him in the head. Inning over, right? Well, no Thanks to the stellar South Siders Umpiring Crew, the hit on the head which visibly moved Wieters mask was ignored. Matt Wieters missed the third strike because, you know, getting hit in the head with a baseball bat might make you lose focus for a second. Once Matt realizes that the umpire isn't calling the obvious play, he gets the ball, dazed, and fires to first, shooting the ball in the outfield. Runs score. Dusty asks for review. This isn't reviewable. As we will see four hours later, checking to see if a nano second slip of a baserunner on a pickoff can be reviewed for 20 minutes, but a crack on the catcher's skull by a baseball bat is outside the replay guidelines. Can someone explain why?
Lots of other things happen. None of them good. None of them by the Cubs doing. An intentional walk. A hit batter with the bases loaded. The Cubs saw four consecutive batters reach: one by an intentional walk, one on a passed-ball strikeout, one on catcher's interference, and the fourth on a hit-by-pitch. Those four events have never happened before in the same half-inning, at least not in the more than 2.7-million half-innings.
9. Sammy Solis. Again.
Its the 8th inning. With all the nightmarish scenarios, the Nats still have a chance to win. Its 9-7. Madson in the 8th right? Its a elimination game. Oh, no. SAMMY SOLIS. Again. Dusty says "thank you sir, may I please have another?" Apparently his short term memory isn't what it used to be. Remember Game 3? Anybody? Why was the trade to Oakland made? Anybody? Well, good ol' Sammy gets one out, then promptly gives up two hits. Apparently someone may have suggested to Dusty "hey remember, Mike Rizzo made that trade to get good relief pitchers in July!" Dusty goes to Madson and he gets out of the inning. But. He couldn't just put in Madson. He double switched, taking out Matt Wieters, who the pitchers love throwing to, for Jose Lobaton, who has barely played all year, and has an average well below .200 in a double switch. So even going to Ryan Madson has a downside in this game. Because....
10. Where was he going, what was he thinking? Again. .
Jose Lobaton comes up with a runner on base in the bottom of the 8th. Miraculously, even though he's only hitting around.140, he gets a hit. Two on, two out. Trea Turner up. Cue Jim Carrey. So you say there's still a chance.
Then, Lobaton takes a wide lead off first and the Hot Dog Catcher For the Cubs throws the ball to pick him off. Loby is safe. But wait! The Weird Wuss wants a cheap out, so he asks for a replay. The replay is inconclusive. At no point, after being shown maybe 4 times in the stadium, is it clear that Lobaton was not safe. He clearly got back way before the ball got there. The Weird Wuss is saying he went off the base. I sure don't see it. The crowd doesn't see it. The umpire standing a foot away from it didn't see it. But somehow a New York replay official wearing a Cubs hat called him out. Inning over. The last chance.
The Nats aren't blameless here. Lobaton shouldn't have been in the game. Lobaton shouldn't have been that far off the base. But dammit, that replay was not clear and convincing evidence that he was out. Was it Dusty's fault that the replay went that way? Of course not. Was it Dusty's fault that Lobaton went too far off the bag? Of course not. Was it Dusty's fault that Lobaton was in the game in the first place? Well,.....
So there we have it. I'll be stewing over this game probably for the rest of my baseball life, which means the rest of my life. But losing a playoff game isn't the end of the world. Winning four division titles in six years without winning a playoff series is better than finishing second four times in six years to the New York Mets. And anything I've listed above is better than being a 10 year old baseball obsessed kid and your team moving to Texas.
I'm sorry personally for Dusty. Great human being. But he blew the playoff series. He wasn't the only one. But he was the one who's contract was up. I wanted him to get his World Series victory and get to Cooperstown. But many in the press are scalding the Lerners for making this decision. I can't. Dusty made several questionable in game decisions. Dusty unwittlingly set up Strasburg to be ridiculed because he got some facts wrong. I don't see disfunction in a team firing a manager for botching a playoff series. The Red Sox did the same thing to Grady Little in 2003. How did 2004 turn out for the Red Sox?
Time will tell on whether they got the right guy after Dusty. But the decision to let him go wasn't necessarily a bad one.
Don't get me wrong. As a guy, I loved Dusty. Everyone loved Dusty. He treated everyone, and I mean EVERYONE with kindness and respect. But man, the playoffs. Everything went wrong. Some of it wasn't Dusty. But some of it was.
For years I joked that I will see Matt Williams taking out Jordan Zimmermann in the ninth inning of Game 2 in the 2014 NLDS on my deathbed. This year, there wasn't that one watershed moment. There were many plays throughout the Cubs series that are sticking in my mind. And I am going to list them for you now.
1. Tony Two Bags "error" in Game 1.
Looked like a foul ball. Handled a little too casually. I know there are many fans that count Rendon as their favorite player and love his 'always smiling' attitude, but to be honest, his lack of apparent fire drives me crazy. Not that he isn't a great player. I just wish he seemed to care as much as I do. And the ball was foul anyway. That play ended up scoring runs, and screwing up a stellar start by Stephen Strasburg. But the ball was foul.
2. Sammy Solis, dammit.
Now I'm getting mad. Game 3 . Scherzer pitching a shutout with a precarious 1 - 0 lead in the bottom of the 7th. Ben Zobrist gets a double. And here comes Dusty. ONE STINKIN' HIT!! HE"S MAX SCHERZER!! Why is he being removed here? You don't trust a Cy Young Award winner to shut down a team he shut down all day because of one hit? Okay, okay. He's coming off an injury. He's near the magic 100 pitch count. Go to the bullpen. I'll get past this.
Now to the bullpen. Prior to mid-July, our bullpen was awful. Not a secret. In mid-July, Mike Rizzo obtained Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson from Oakland. To pitch the 8th and 9th. They have done very well from the get-go. But wait, there's more. Rizzo thought we needed another bullpen piece to shut down the 7th inning. So he trades for Minnesota's closer, and All Star, Brandon Knitzner. Starters get through six. Knitzler, Madson and Doolittle. The firm. T Shirts are printed up. The bullpen is saved. Or so we thought.
Game 3 of the best of 5. Its 1-0 in the SEVENTH. The Cy Young award winner is supposedly spent. So go to the formula that has been near perfect for two months, right? Knitzler, then Madson, then Doolittle. Odds are this will work. If not, tip your hat, this is the moment Mike Rizzo envisioned when he made those trades.
But OH NO!! Let's play the so-called percentages by bringing in a left hander. Sammy Solis. He's been lit up often during the year, when he wasn't hurt. His ERA is over 5.00. He was part of the 'problem' that led to two key July trades. This may be the pivot point of the series. We have three lock down bullpen pieces. WHY IS SAMMY SOLIS ON THE MOUND?
Of course, you know the rest. Solis gives up a hit to tie the game, because Dusty Baker thinks Kyle Schwarber is Babe Ruth and doesn't want to face him in that situation. Kyle is built like Babe Ruth, but hit .200 with one lousy hit in the whole post season. Sammy Solis against anyone is worse than Kyle Schwarber against Knitzler or Doolittle. Game tied. Sammy blew it. BIG SURPRISE!
When I heard that Dusty wasn't retained, two words came to my mind. Sammy Solis.
3. Oliver Perez?
I have two longstanding memories of Oliver Perez. One is from the 2000-2004 period when I would have to go Cincinnati to see my favorite baseball team. Inevitable, trips were planned mid-summer when Pittsburgh was in Cincinnati. It seemed like every time Pittsburgh played Cincinnati Oliver Perez started a game, and pitched a complete game shutout. But that was a long, long time ago. Ken Griffey Jr., Hall of Famer, was a Red. Sean Casey, MLB Network Analyst, was a Red. Aaron Boone, who gets paid to listen to Jessica Mendoza talk on ESPN, was a Red. Adam Dunn was a rookie. Riverfront Stadium still existed.
My other memory of Oliver Perez is in Spring Training, 2011. Lots has happened since I saw Ollie dominate the Reds. A team came to DC. I go to Spring Training. I re-develop a long dormant hatred of the New York Mets. Ollie is pitching against the Nats in Port St. Lucie this day in March 2011, and gets lit up, the likes of which Jeremy Guthrie would be proud of. He couldn't have gotten me out had the Nats decided to hand me a bat. He is booed off the mound more loudly than I've ever heard anyone booed in my life. Louder than Caps fans booing Pittsburgh Penguins. Louder than long suffering spouses forced to attend a John Denver concert. The booing is deafening. And its Spring Training! Ollie was released the next day.
So with these two polar opposite visions in my head, I question why the Nats signed Oliver Perez in the first place. To be fair, after that day in Port St. Lucie, he has bounced around and re-invented himself as a serviceable, but not great, left handed specialist. Rizzo signed him to that role in 2016 and he hasn't been horrible, but he isn't Knitzler, Madson and Doolittle. There are no Ollie T shirts.
So, with a runner in scoring position in the bottom of the eight inning of Game 3, with the score tied, Knitzler is pitching, so you feel somewhat safe. But, wait, one runner on, so Dusty goes to the bullpen. The eighth inning. So it must be Madson right? That would be good. Wait, Dusty wants a left hander. So it must be Doolittle. Dusty must have heard about the Zach Britton fiasco last year, right? But nooooooo. ITS OLIVER PEREZ!!! He was a part of the unacceptable pre-July bullpen too. He's hit or miss. But apparently Dusty's "gut" must have digested too many peaches because he we are again in a win or lose game situation and he's putting in pitchers that were not designed to pitch in the 7th, 8th or 9th. It didn't work an hour ago, so of course its going to work now, right Dusty? And of course what happens? A bloop hit. RESPECT ME!!! When the season is on the line, shouldn't the best pitchers in your bullpen be on the mound? Does Aaron Barrett throwing a wild pitch against the AT&T backdrop in 2014 not haunt anyone but me?
Okay, okay. It was a bloop that could have been caught. But it wasn't. And the Nats lost with Madson and Doolittle never taking the mound in a one run game. Why did Mike Rizzo trade for them again?
4. Speaking of the bloop....
Now that ball has to be caught. F.P. Santangelo said he'd rather have three guys going to the hospital than that ball fall in. I wouldn't. Trea Turner, who's entire series should have the Nats re-evaluating his value, was flagling at the ball like Pee Wee Herman running after his lost bicycle. Jayson Werth wasn't going to get there. Michael A. Taylor, for all his heroics, should have been the one to catch that ball. It was catchable, and he was the centerfielder, who we all know is the take charge guy. Michael did a lot of good things in the series, so I'm not going to bust on him. I think he was somewhat spooked at Turner heading right for him.
5. The Strasburg Shutdown, Part 2.
Okay, this ended up well. Just for one day. We can be heroes. Just for one day. We can be safer Just for one day.
After the game 4 rainout, the Nats had a choice between Strasburg and Roark. The world was calling for Strasburg. Dusty held a press conference after the rainout. Roark is pitching game 4, Dusty says. Strasburg threw a bullpen today Dusty says. Strasburg is not feeling too good to pitch tomorrow, Dusty says. Its the mold in the hotel, Dusty says. John Feinstein is rubbing his hands and re-fueling the fire on his stake to go after Strasburg again. So are everyone on MLB Network, national baseball writers, etc. Strasburg is soft. No one can look Strasburg in the eye says dancing legend and backup catcher David Ross. Strasburg is getting crucified.
Problem is, Dusty had some facts wrong. One, he didn't need to name a starter at all. Two, Strasburg didn't pitch a bullpen the day Dusty said he did, he pitched it the day before. Three ,Strasburg wasn't a little under the weather, he was deathly ill.
It all worked out okay, just for one day. Strasburg woke up healthy enough to pitch and shut everyone up by pitching the game of his life just when the Nats needed it most. But it rendered him unavailable for game 5. If Dusty said nothing about Strasburg and Roark pitched game 4, the Nats may have lost. But if they got to game 5, Strasburg would have been available. Had Dusty not went through the press conference, that may have been an option. But because of the press conference, Strasburg was pretty much forced to pitch game 4 or be crucified again in the press. Which brings us to the Game 5 starter.
6. Shakey had a party that lasted all night...
Gio Gonzales. Loveable guy. Really good to the fans. Wears his heart on his sleeve. Started Game 5 in 2012, which ended up permanently damaging Drew Storen's career. To my mind, if you have to point a finger to blame for that heartbreak, I go straight to Gio. It was 6 - 0. He got rattled. He started walking people. He let the rickshaw down the hill with Newman riding it. Though he was out of the game the damage was done, he started the downhill motion.
Prior to the playoffs, Phil Wood has been spouting off for three weeks that the pitching rotation for the series should be Stras, Gio and then Max. Dave Jaegler, who has baseball knowledge from watching games, not memorizing old statistics, points out that this idea is, um, not the best because Max would not be available for Game 5. Phil ignores Dave's attempt to inject some common sense into the conversation and gleefully points out that his brilliant idea will lead to a sweep. Because the Nats will inevitably sweep the Cubs.
Now its game 5. Unfortunately Max's injury has lead to him essentially being unavailable, except for a couple innings, as Dave had predicted. So now we have Tanner Roark, who pitched a beautiful game for the USA in the World Baseball Classic, and has more, um, guts shall we say, than most pitchers in the National League. Tanner has had a somewhat disappointing regular season, to be sure, but he improved greatly in the second half, and has a bulldog mentality. He's not going to get rattled. You get the idea that Tanner's entire career is playing with house money and he's going to make the most of it. Or....
Or, we have Gio Gonzalez pitching Game 5, just like 2012. Jon Jay, Hot Dog, the first batter, just like 2012. Unlikeable NL Central opponent, just like 2012. Dusty wants Gio to have redemption. Well....
Boom! Boom! Walk! Wild pitch! Gio literally looks like he is going to have a breakdown in the first inning. Everything goes wrong. But, he manages to survive leaving the bases loaded with only one run. Anyone, including the sight impaired, can see that Gio is not emotionally handling this big moment well. But, he only gave one run up, so why pull him? He's going to calm down. Particularly when the Nats gave him a 4-1 lead, right?
Well, we all know what happened in the third inning. Its 2012 all over again. Big lead, Gio panics. So much for redemption. And Tanner Roark never even was given a chance to pitch. The whole 'redemption' thing is so very Dusty. I get it. But once you see Gio is not seizing the moment, and you have a 4-1 lead with a quality starter rested, why do you let him out there to flop and twitch? Get the guy with balls in there. Maybe starting Gio wasn't Dusty's decision alone. But leaving him out there after he did his best Henry Rodriguez impression was all Dusty.
7. Where was he going? What was he thinking?
After Gio's implosion, only one run scored. Then Trea Turner ends up on third base with one out and Bryce Harper up. This run's gotta score right? WRONG! Infield in, Bryce hits a rocket to second base. Trea is breaking to the plate on a ball that NO ONE could have possibly scored on. Instead of runner on third and Zim up, its runner on first. No first inning run. Why did Trea go? Did the moment get too big for him? Was he overconfident that he could outrun a scorching line drive? Did Bob "Send-ly" get greedy? I'm not sure this question was answered, but it was one run we should have scored and did not.
We lost Game 5 by one run.
8. Lonely in your nightmare
If there is one decision I cannot criticize Dusty for, its bringing in Max Scherzer in the fifth inning. Its 4-3, even with Gio's antics. Max is available for two innings. Max pitches two scoreless, then the firm comes in and we win 4-3, even if there are no tack on runs. That was the plan and its viable. But....
So much goes wrong here, and none of it is on Dusty. Javier Baez strikes out with two outs in the inning. Javier Baez is going to kill someone one day, because his swing is out of control and more than once a catcher's head has felt the brunt of his lack of control. This time, it was Matt Wieters. Catcher's interference, you can't hit him in the head. Inning over, right? Well, no Thanks to the stellar South Siders Umpiring Crew, the hit on the head which visibly moved Wieters mask was ignored. Matt Wieters missed the third strike because, you know, getting hit in the head with a baseball bat might make you lose focus for a second. Once Matt realizes that the umpire isn't calling the obvious play, he gets the ball, dazed, and fires to first, shooting the ball in the outfield. Runs score. Dusty asks for review. This isn't reviewable. As we will see four hours later, checking to see if a nano second slip of a baserunner on a pickoff can be reviewed for 20 minutes, but a crack on the catcher's skull by a baseball bat is outside the replay guidelines. Can someone explain why?
Lots of other things happen. None of them good. None of them by the Cubs doing. An intentional walk. A hit batter with the bases loaded. The Cubs saw four consecutive batters reach: one by an intentional walk, one on a passed-ball strikeout, one on catcher's interference, and the fourth on a hit-by-pitch. Those four events have never happened before in the same half-inning, at least not in the more than 2.7-million half-innings.
9. Sammy Solis. Again.
Its the 8th inning. With all the nightmarish scenarios, the Nats still have a chance to win. Its 9-7. Madson in the 8th right? Its a elimination game. Oh, no. SAMMY SOLIS. Again. Dusty says "thank you sir, may I please have another?" Apparently his short term memory isn't what it used to be. Remember Game 3? Anybody? Why was the trade to Oakland made? Anybody? Well, good ol' Sammy gets one out, then promptly gives up two hits. Apparently someone may have suggested to Dusty "hey remember, Mike Rizzo made that trade to get good relief pitchers in July!" Dusty goes to Madson and he gets out of the inning. But. He couldn't just put in Madson. He double switched, taking out Matt Wieters, who the pitchers love throwing to, for Jose Lobaton, who has barely played all year, and has an average well below .200 in a double switch. So even going to Ryan Madson has a downside in this game. Because....
10. Where was he going, what was he thinking? Again. .
Jose Lobaton comes up with a runner on base in the bottom of the 8th. Miraculously, even though he's only hitting around.140, he gets a hit. Two on, two out. Trea Turner up. Cue Jim Carrey. So you say there's still a chance.
Then, Lobaton takes a wide lead off first and the Hot Dog Catcher For the Cubs throws the ball to pick him off. Loby is safe. But wait! The Weird Wuss wants a cheap out, so he asks for a replay. The replay is inconclusive. At no point, after being shown maybe 4 times in the stadium, is it clear that Lobaton was not safe. He clearly got back way before the ball got there. The Weird Wuss is saying he went off the base. I sure don't see it. The crowd doesn't see it. The umpire standing a foot away from it didn't see it. But somehow a New York replay official wearing a Cubs hat called him out. Inning over. The last chance.
The Nats aren't blameless here. Lobaton shouldn't have been in the game. Lobaton shouldn't have been that far off the base. But dammit, that replay was not clear and convincing evidence that he was out. Was it Dusty's fault that the replay went that way? Of course not. Was it Dusty's fault that Lobaton went too far off the bag? Of course not. Was it Dusty's fault that Lobaton was in the game in the first place? Well,.....
So there we have it. I'll be stewing over this game probably for the rest of my baseball life, which means the rest of my life. But losing a playoff game isn't the end of the world. Winning four division titles in six years without winning a playoff series is better than finishing second four times in six years to the New York Mets. And anything I've listed above is better than being a 10 year old baseball obsessed kid and your team moving to Texas.
I'm sorry personally for Dusty. Great human being. But he blew the playoff series. He wasn't the only one. But he was the one who's contract was up. I wanted him to get his World Series victory and get to Cooperstown. But many in the press are scalding the Lerners for making this decision. I can't. Dusty made several questionable in game decisions. Dusty unwittlingly set up Strasburg to be ridiculed because he got some facts wrong. I don't see disfunction in a team firing a manager for botching a playoff series. The Red Sox did the same thing to Grady Little in 2003. How did 2004 turn out for the Red Sox?
Time will tell on whether they got the right guy after Dusty. But the decision to let him go wasn't necessarily a bad one.
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