Thursday, November 9, 2017

Strasburg or Scherzer?

The Cy Young finalists have been announced, and, lo and behold there are two Nationals on the list.  Not Blake Treinen and Shawn Kelley.  Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer.

Which should win? 

Either would be a good candidate, but to me Strasburg is the best pitcher on the staff, and in fact the best pitcher in the National League.   I cannot recall one bad Strasburg outing all year.  Max seemed to have a couple of clunkers.  Not many, mind you, but a couple.

Strasburg went 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA in 2017. 204 Strikeouts in 175.1 innings.  His four losses:
April 29, NYM.  5-3 loss 7 innings, 3 ER
June 7, LAD 2-1 loss  6 innings, 1 ER
July 8, Atlanta 13-0 loss 3 innings, 3 ER
August 19 San Diego 3-1 loss.  6 innings, 2 ER

In his losses, Strasburg pitched 22 innings and gave up 9 ER., a 3.68 ERA.  If you take out that one clunker against Atlanta, he pitched 19 innings and gave up 6 ER, for an ERA of 2.84.  IN HIS LOSSES. 

This is an amazingly consistent, dominant pitcher. 

Max certainly also had a deserving year, going 16-6 with a 2.51 ERA.   A few more innings,, and an almost identical record.  But lets examine Max's six losses:

April 12, St. L, 6-1 loss  6 innings, 1 ER
April 28, NYM, 7-5 loss  6 innings, 5 ER
May 20, Atlanta 5-2 loss  5 innings, 3ER
June 11, Texas 5-1 loss 7.1 innings, 2 ER
June 21, Miami, 2-1 loss 8 innings, 2 ER
Sep. 13, Atlanta 8-2 loss 6 innings, 7 ER

In his losses, Max pitched 38.1 and gave up 20 runs, for an ERA of 4.69.

Admittedly, this is splitting hairs and there is a strong argument for Max because he pitched approximately 20 more innings than Stras.  And, admittedly, I'm a big Strasburg guy, he is a 'true Nat' whilst Max seems more like the hired gun.   I prefer the 'just go pitch' style of Strasburg to the theatrics of Max.  So I may not be unbiased, but I'd give the Cy Young to Stephen Strasburg. 

By a nose. 

Saturday, November 4, 2017

The W & W Boys

With the Hot Stove warming up, there were a few pieces of Nats news over the past day.  One, from impeccable source Jon Heyman, notes that it is possible that Jayson Werth returns to the Nats on a one year deal.  The other, from John Feinstein (a New York Yankee reporter), was about the status of Matt Wieters, who has an option to extend his contract for one year.  Feinstein at first reported on Friday that Wieters had opted to return to the Nats; a few hours later this report was revoked.

I personally hope both Werth and Wieters return next season.

I don't know why a certain portion of the fan base has turned on Jayson Werth.   Even injured, he remained the heart and soul of the team in 2017.  He was performing at a good rate before an early June injury in Oakland.  When he returned ,he had one monster game against the Marlins, but struggled the rest of the year at the bat. He also will be remembered not so fondly for missing a ball in the lights in Game 5.  But are two off months enough to write off Jayson Werth?  Not to me.  He's done so much for the organization, is a fan favorite, a leader in the clubhouse.   This is said to be a 'must' year for the Nats in 2018.  Do you rip the heart out of an organization by letting a team leader go in a 'must' year?   Does Werth have the physical ability to bounce back after an injury riddled season?   Don't bet against Jayson. 

I also hope Matt Wieters returns.   How many times during 2017 have the top Nats pitchers praised the pitch calling of Matt Wieters.  You know, guys like Strasburg and Scherzer.   Wieters also fielded the position much better than his predessor. Apparently Buffaloes can't catch a throw from a cut off man when there is a play at the plate.  Wieters made a lot of good plays throughout the season and seemed to be steady force that the Nats have lacked since the carefree days of Brian Schneider.  I know his batting was not good the second half, but perhaps with a little more rest and another year under his belt in the Senior Circuit, his batting stats go back up to Wieters norms.  Who's the alternative if Wieters walks?  Pedro Severino?  He didn't do anything to improve his stock this past season?  Wellington Castillo?  No, thanks.  

Both of the W&W boys have the 'clutch' gene, too.  That thing you can't quantify by logging onto BaseballReference.com   When the game is on the line, I'll take Werth or Wieters in the batters box over many others.  

Sometimes the best change is no change at all.   I hope the Nats keep these two valuable veterans around for the all important 2018 season.

Friday, November 3, 2017

Thoughts on Dave Martinez's Presser

I feel like a voter waking up the next morning after Election Day when his candidate did not win.  You know, the election is over, but lets try to find some good in the guy who we didn't want. 

Now not much can be gleaned from an introductory press conference other than a photo op for the new guy so his face can be shown without a photo shopped hat.  But, in the midst of all the clichés (he believes in communication, etc.) a couple of things stood out that I liked.

One, he has confidence.  The good kind.   He calmly responded to a question about his selection by stating that he knew he was selected based upon the merit of his performance in the past as a coach and could hardly wait to get started.

Two, he does seem to be a people person.  He acknowledged Charlie Slowes from the crowd during the Q&A's and after the presser was over, before approaching the press, before even approaching Ted Lerner, he went over to Charlie and gave him a big bear hug.   Presumably they know each other from Tampa Bay Devil Rays days.  I was impressed that Dave/Davey, in his biggest moment to date, found it most important to greet an old friend before blowing his own horn.

Three, he is a likeable fellow.  He is humble.   He looked people in the eye. 

On the other hand....

I still don't know what makes him qualified.  All I gleamed from the presser is that the belief around Nationals Park these days is that Joe Maddon walks on water and Joe found Dave/Davey worthy to stand in his presence.  It also sounded like Martinez was something of a hit man for Maddon -- if its bad news, good ol' Joe sent Dave/Davey to deliver it.  Rizzo likes Joe Maddon -- you know, the guy that recommended Yunel Escobar for Tyler Clippard.  Davey like Joe Maddon - -the guy that gave him a start in coaching.  All well and good.  I can stand next to Max Scherzer.  Doesn't mean I'm going to throw a no-no.

Also in the presser it came out that Dave/Davey is big on analytics, but understands not to give players too much information.  I'm not sure what this means.  You have info but don't share it.  Maybe this makes sense to a ballplayer, but I'm not sure that it makes sense to me.

I found myself really liking Dave Martinez personally but cringing ever time his former employers or boss was brought up.  Hopefully in time the homage to Joe Maddon will die down and Dave  Martinez, with his own staff and responsibilities, discovers his own niche.  He's got a year to do to it.  GO!

Monday, October 30, 2017

There is a guy with a Cubs hat on my blog



The formal announcement of Dave Martinez came today.  The press conference is coming sometime after the World Series.  The last manager press conference came on my birthday, November 5.  It was a nice present -- a little bit of Nats-dom in what already seemed like a long off season in 2015.  Dusty Baker was coming.  Smiling, happy and experienced.  I hadn't seen Dusty's shortcomings first hand yet (see Solis, Sammy, (2017) and Kelley, Shawn (2016)) but I had experienced a choking by a rented closer and a whole lot of Clint Robinson.

This feels more like 2013 than 2015.  Only worse.  I thought Matt Williams would be a good manager. The guy they picked him over was Dave Martinez.  The DC Sports Bog guy reminded me why by posting a quote.   Maybe it was this one:




Or maybe it was this one:

 I keep hoping to see exactly what makes Dave Martinez "progressive" and "no one better suited"  apart from standing next to Joe Maddon for ten years.   He wasn't as progressive as Matt Williams, nor, when they both were candidates, was Martinez judged to be the best suited.  What changed?   Hopefully someone in the press will ask Mike Rizzo that question, and Mike will have a good answer.

David Ross likes this hire.  Because, you know, he understands Stephen Strasburg so well. And because you know that any dancer on Dancing with the Stars has the welfare of the Washington Nationals foremost on his or her mind.  Besides, I'm sure that its just a coincidence that Dave Martinez was standing beside Joe Maddon when David Ross played on the Cubs.   The Nationals are going to do some "amazing things" says Grandpa Rossie.



And I thought the Vin Scully first pitch skit was nauseating.  I guess if a backup catcher posts a photo of a coach hugging him, that qualifies the coach to manage.  The last thing I was hoping for was to have the Cub virus injected into my Nationals veins.

Let's hope this works out better than I'm expecting it will. 

Update, 2 pm.  At least they got the Cubs hat off of him.


 
 
 
 

Sunday, October 29, 2017

Why i didn't want Dave Martinez

Reports surfaced Sunday morning that Dave Martinez will be named the next manager of the Washington Nationals.  Looks like I was wrong when I gave the Lerners and Mike Rizzo credit for wanting to upgrade the manager's position.   I'm disappointed.   I don't know much about Dave Martinez, and will hope he does well.   But I have reservations about him. 

For one thing, two organizations that were familiar with Martinez did not select him to be their manager, and opted for an equally inexperienced manager outside their organizational structure instead of hiring Martinez.   The Martinez tale began when Andrew Friedman left the Rays after the 2014 season to take over the Dodgers operation.   This lead to Joe Maddon also leaving Tampa for the loveable Cubbies.  So the Rays needed a new manager after 2014.  They were happy with Maddon.  Martinez was there.  He was a top candidate.  He knew the players.  He wasn't expensive. But they went in another direction, choosing Kevin Cash from the Indians staff.  Why didn't the Rays name Martinez manager then?

Fast forward one year.  The Dodgers parted ways with Don Mattingly.  Maddon was safely with the Cubs, but Martinez was available and interviewed for the Dodgers post.  Friedman was familiar with him.  Martinez was passed over.  Not for Gabe Kapler, ,who was the leading candidate in house for the Dodgers at the time.  But for Dave Roberts, who was a coach for the San Diego Padres.  Why did another executive from Tampa pass over Martinez if he was qualified and familiar?

Another reason I question this move is Martinez's actual qualifications.  Do you know what they are?  I don't.  From what I see, his qualifications are essentially being Joe Maddon's bench coach.  Anyone reading this knows I don't like Maddon.  He is a self-promoter that pulls stunts for media promotion -- penguins in the clubhouse, getting the players to dress like princesses and the like.  Maddon's in game management is as poor as Dusty Baker's was.   I'll see your Sammy Solis and raise you a Carl Edwards Jr.  I'll put an outfielder that makes Adam Dunn look like a Gold Glove left fielder in my lineup.   I'll run Aroldis Chapman's arm into the ground no matter how many hits he gives up.  So what I see here is that the Nats let a manager go who was experienced, a good clubhouse man who made bad in game decisions, to hire an inexperienced man who's claim to fame is assisting a manager who is good in the clubhouse but makes bad in game decisions.  I don't think this makes sense.

What has Martinez ever done in baseball that merits this selection?  Carry Joe Maddon's bags?  Help Joe get the rattlesnake out of Tropicana Field?  Kevin Long was an inexperienced candidate but I know what he did.  Helped Yankees and Mets hitters -- Curtis Granderson and Daniel Murphy being two of his pupils.  The only other known candidate who was interviewed, John Farrell, led the Red Sox to the World Series and was a highly respected pitching coach.  What makes Martinez qualified?  His middling 1980s-90s career?  He knows Wade Boggs?  I'm not saying Martinez isn't qualified, but I sure have not heard not now and not ever what makes Martinez suited for the position.  Hopefully the Nats will explain this in the press conference introducing him to the local media. .

Finally, keep in mind that Martinez interviewed for the manager's job with the Nationals before.  After 2013.  He was not hired because Nats management decided that Matt Williams was more equipped to run the Nats than Dave Martinez.  Remember how well the Matt Williams hire went? Well we just hired the guy who wasn't as good. 

I hope Martinez does well and I hope next year everyone reading this can look back on it and point out how wrong I am here.  But to my eyes, on October 29,2017  this supports the Jon Heyman's of the world who are quick to criticize the Nats for their failure to obtain a top manager because they don't want to pay him. 

Jon Heyman was the first to report this hire.  Of course.


Starting over

The Nats need another starter.   Not Edwin Jackson.  Not (yet) Eric Fedde.  A real fifth starter.  With this in mind, I looked up the FA starting pitchers and have a few knee jerk reactions on whether they'd fit with the Curly W.

Jake Arrieta (32)  Will command too much

Christian Bergman (30)  Who? Journeyman. Not good enough.

Mike Bolsinger (30)  He's a Dodger.  He might be one of the faceless pitchers that relieve the starters nightly but I can't prove that he is. 

Clay Buchholz (33)  I thought he was dead.  Maybe a spring training invite flyer

Trevor Cahill (30)  This guy was a pretty good D Back and a reasonably good Cub reliever last year, I believe.   I'd try him, but I don't know if I'd use him as a starter or reliever.

Andrew Cashner (31). He was traded for Anthony Rizzo.  He's not consistent but if he's available I think he'd be usable.

Jhoulys Chacin (30)  Didn't Ian Desmond hit him in the head once?  He's bounced around and doesn't even start anymore.

Tyler Chatwood (28)  Rockies pitcher. He's been good at times, not so much at other times. Was this the Coors Field effect?   Maybe.   Was it the pitcher's own inconsistency?  Maybe.  Should the Nats take a chance on him?  Maybe.

Jesse Chavez (34).. Journeyman

Alex Cobb (30)  This is the best guy on the list other than the 'stars'. I'd like him but I bet someone gives him a contract worthy of a number one.

Josh Collmenter (32)  He's never maintained any consistency.  But he's had a few moments.  Might be this year's "Lightning in a Bottle" but I wouldn't risk it.

Bartolo Colon (45)  Please retire.  The "Big Sexy" bit isn't funny.

Johnny Cueto (32) — Not going to accept a back of the rotation salary

Yu Darvish (31) Did you see Game 3?

R.A. Dickey (43)  Aside from the fact I hate watching him pitch, its not that bad an idea.

Nathan Eovaldi (28) — $2MM club option.  We already have an injured fifth starter. Don't need another.

Scott Feldman (35).  The Orioles think he's better than Jake Arrieta. I don't.

Doug Fister (34).  I  think Doug was good as a Nat and seemed to be reasonably good as a Red Sock. But Mike Rizzo generally doesn't chew his cabbage twice.  And there must be a reason he's bounced around so much.

Yovani Gallardo (32) — Has a club option but if he's free, he's not for me.

Jaime Garcia (31)   Maybe.  Teams looking for pitching more than the Nats might pay more, though
.
Matt Garza (34)   Was but not is.  Has been.  No thanks.

Dillon Gee (32) I always thought he was reasonably good as a Met.  I'd give him a shot either as a starter or in the bullpen.

Miguel Gonzalez (34)  Too Oriole.

Jeremy Hellickson (31)  Bad Oriole.

Derek Holland (31)  Pitches like an Oriole.

David Holmberg (26)  Wasn't he a frequent guest of Mike Douglas in the '70s?  A producer on Seinfeld?  No?  Well, he was traded FOR Edwin Jackson.  Think about THAT.

Drew Hutchison (27)  I would definitely sign this guy and give him a chance.  I was always impressed with him when he was a Blue Jay.  I think he could be 'fixed'.

Ubaldo Jimenez (34)  Not good enough for the Orioles.  So obviously not good enough for the Nats.

John Lackey (39)   Maybe if there's an old timers game.

Francisco Liriano (34)  Might be a cheap option but he hasn't been particularly good as an Astro.

Jeff Locke (30)  A face in the crowd.  I think he was a bad Pirate.

Jordan Lyles (27).  Rockies pitchers might do well out of Coors Field

Lance Lynn (31)  Already has a big moment at Nats Park.  He'd be perfect but probably will get more to be a Top 2 starter elsewhere.

Miles Mikolas (29)  he pitches in Japan and is nicknamed "Lizard King".  That's a no.

Wade Miley (31) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout.  Too Oriole.

Mike Minor (30) — $10MM mutual option with a $1.25MM buyout.  I remember this guy being fairly good for the Braves.  He's apparently oft injured and a Royals reliever, so probably not an option.

Ricky Nolasco (35) — $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout.  Was so bad the Twins gave the Angels Alex Meyer just to take him. 

Wily Peralta (29)  A pretty good Brewer.  Probably someone desperate for pitching will overpay.  I'm not sure why the Brewers haven't re-upped him.

Martin Perez (27) — $6MM club option with a $2.45MM buyout

Michael Pineda (29).  Injury risk.

Tyson Ross -- Wasn't good with the Rangers but maybe on a non-roster contract.

CC Sabathia (37) -- Wants to be a Yankee

Anibal Sanchez (34)  Can back up John Lackey in the Old Timers Game.

Hector Santiago (30)  not good enough for the Twins?

Masahiro Tanaka (29) — Can opt out of the remaining three years, $67MM on his contract. A TJ injury waiting to happen. 

Chris Tillman (30).  Might be good for a year contract to try to reclaim his career. And if he was good, it would really annoy Peter Angelos.  I'd do it.

Josh Tomlin (33) — $3MM club option with a $750K buyout

Jacob Turner (27).  We've seen him once.  It was enough. 

Jason Vargas (35)  Kind of guy the Orioles would sign in March

Hideaki Wakui (32). A Japanese pitcher I've never seen.  32 year old rookie isn't a good idea though
.
Asher Wojciechowski (29)  An Astros pitcher I'm not familiar with. I see a lot of them in Spring Training, and I have no memory of this guy, so I don't know what is wrong this gentleman.

Chris Young (39)  He couldn't get out of Syracuse before, why would he now?


There are a few pitchers I'd like to see come to DC as a fifth starter that are available and realistic possibilities. Alex Cobb, Jamie Garcia, Chris Tillman, Drew Hutchinson ,Lance Lynn, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Jordan Miles, Tyler Chatwood,and Dillon Gee.  Rizzo won't bring in all of them.  If he gets one of the top people on this list like Cobb or Lynn, he only needs one of them.

Friday, October 27, 2017

Nats Will Get Joe Girardi.

I always get a good chuckle at reading Jon Heyman.   If the Nationals found a cure for cancer, Heyman's headline would be "Nationals Brass Cruelly Hang On To Cancer Cure, Leaving Millions to Die."   Jon, a supposed journalist, dislikes the Nationals about as much as Elaine Benes dislikes The English Patient.

So, today, Jon, tweets the following "information": "initial word hearing out of DC is that girardi is "not likely." for one, nats don't believe in paying big bucks to manager."  And this tweet is being cited in credible places, like the excellent  MLB Trade Rumors website, as an actual "update".

But really, what does this tweet say?   Are these internal sources?  Or did Jon call someone who lives in DC who told him what he wanted to hear?  Jon also tweeted recently that the Nats were "weeks behind" the other teams in their managerial search.  Weeks means more than one.  Baker was informed he wouldn't be returning on October 20.   Two weeks before October 20 is October 6.  Thus, just doing the math, and putting two and two together, Jon Heyman claims the Nats mismanaged their decision on Baker because they didn't let him go before the NLDS even began.

Well, sorry, Jon.  I think you're going to be proven wrong here.  The Lerners aren't cheap.  They put resources where they think they are most important.  And clearly, here, no matter what managerial decisions they made on Jim Riggleman or Manny Acta 10 years ago, they, at this point, consider the manager to be key to a World Series victory.   It would have been easy to keep Dusty Baker.  They didn't do the easy thing.

They felt they needed someone to teach the team how to win.  They signed Jayson Werth to a $126 million contract.   Then, in 2014/15, they felt they another starter. They signed Max Scherzer to a contract over $200 million.  They felt they needed a closer in 2017.  They increased payroll to get Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson.  And Brandon Kintzler.

The decision not to retain Dusty showed that they now feel they need a manager who can get the most out of the players in the games that mean the most.   The Nationals method of operation in this instance isn't to skimp, rather, the exact opposite.  They go get the best man available.

Joe Girardi.

Of course there is no guarantee of anything here.  But if past behavior predicts the future, we'll see Joe G in West Palm Beach in March.

P.S. Update from Chelsea Janes, with real information on Girardi. "The Nationals pursued Girardi when they first moved to D.C., but were still unsure of the veteran’s interest in managing as of Friday morning, according to a person familiar with the situation."   Janes also reports "Nationals ownership might be willing to provide a longer deal (than two years) to their next manager, in part because of the state of the market."