Thursday, November 27, 2008

Rumors and lies and stories they made up

Well the old hot stove league is in full swing, and, the Nats seem to be smack dab in the middle of everything this year. I've been trying to follow everything I can on this, and here are the bits and pieces I've found around.

Coming

1. Mark Teixeira. Lots of rumblings about this. He wants to be signed by Christmas. He is apparently interested in playing for the Nats. He wants to stay on the east coast. The Nats are ready to offer 'crazy money.'

Teixeira is really perfect for the Nats, but are the Nats perfect for Teixeira? He's a good guy (certainly was a nice guy giving autographs when he came here as a member of the Braves.) From the area. A power hitting left handed first baseman.

Tex is rumored to be courted by the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Orioles and Nats. I just don't see the Red Sox signing this guy. They have Youkis at 1b, Lowell at 3b and Big Papa at dh. The rumor goes that Lowell would be dealt if Tex is signed. Seems like that's a high dollar gamble for this team that is so loaded they really don't have to pay $200 mil to one guy to get back to the Series.

The Yanks seem interested only because he's a big ticket free agent, and they are the Yanks, so they have to be interested in spending a lot of money. Why they would worry about Texiera when they so desparately need pitching is beyond me. Ching Ling Wang was hurt for most of the year, Mike Mussina retired, and they really have no one else (Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, both fantasy team busts for me last year, qualify as no one). The Yankees are clearly looking to sign Sabathia, but he seems hesitant (you mean that money can't buy you happiness?!). There are several other quality free agent starters on the market, including the oft-injured but talented Ben Sheets and the underappreciated Derek Lowe and Brad Penny. Unless that money is burning a hole in the pocket of Hank Steinbrenner, seems to me he's better off looking elsewhere.

The Angels are supposedly balking at Boras' demand for a 10 year contract. And Tex seems predisposed to come back east. So they are a possible, but unlikely destination in my opinion. (By the way, there is a complete idiot sportswriter on the west coast named Randy Youngman of the Orange County Register who states that Teixiera would be 'ridiculed' if he signed with a 'perpetual loser' like the Nationals. The team has been in existence four years. Perpetual? The Iraq war has been in existence two years longer than the Nationals. How can anything be 'perpetual' on the Nationals? One wonders how this loudmouthed uninformed unnecessarily insulting sportswriter sitting three thousand miles away could know that the Nationals will be 'losers' for the ten years of the contract Teixeira seeks. And jeez, I wouldn't mind being ridiculed for getting $200 million. I wonder how many Nationals game this idiot has actually seen.)

That leaves the Orioles and the Nationals. Good ol' Peter Angelos at it again. Teixeira supposedly grew up an Orioles fan (pity, really) so one would assume that if everything is equal, he'd put a bird on his head. But it may come down to years, guaranteed money, and which league Tex would rather play in. My guess is that he's going to end up in Baltimore, but the Nats have a better shot at this than what the national press would like to think.

2. Adam Dunn. If you read this blog, you know I want this to happen. Dunn's destinations have been remarkably quiet. My guess is that after Tex signs the bats are going to begin to fall. The one story I heard was that Jim Bowden contacted Dunn at the beginning of the free agency period, and told him to bring him a number before he signed anywhere else. With Bowden, AK, Aaron Boone, Bob Boone, Jose Rijo and Barry Larkin here, I really think that Dunn probably would be very comfortable with the Nats and be very productive. If Texiera goes elsewhere, this needs to get done.

3. Delmon Young. This would be a trade. Why why why? Didn't this family hose us once already? He's been with the Twinkies for a year and they're looking to move him. Another disgruntled ex-Devil Ray?

4. Orlando Hudson. I've always thought that this guy was over rated, he's a good quote so the press seems to love him. He also seems to be hurt quite often. But, lets face it, he's probably an upgrade over Ronnie Bellard or Anderson Hernandez, and would improve the team. Also is supposedly a great clubhouse guy. But I've seen his name linked to about a half dozen teams, so why would he come here?

Staying?
1. Aaron Boone. Wants to play here, of course, his dad and JimBo are here and he's a leader and liked in the clubhouse. He'd help Willingham and (more importantly) Olsen adjust. Its supposedly a matter of money.

2. Odalis Perez. There was a Spanish language report that he was working on a 2-3 year deal with the Nats, that turned out to be false. What veteran pitcher would you rather have in the rotation next year -- Odalis Perez, Tim Redding or someone else? I'm not sure I know the answer to that.

Going
1. Nick Johnson. Just before Thanksgiving there were a whole bunch of press reports that the Oakland A's were seeking Nick's medical records. This appears to be true but no trade imminent. One report suggested Nick would be traded if Texiera signed with the Nats; another indicated that the Nats were interested in a young A's first baseman .

Check the first 2008 post of the Nats Boy Report to see my high praise of Nick Johnson. When healthy, I think he's one of the most underrated players in the league. When healthy. Its been two years and Nick's played about six weeks though. I've jumped the shark. He's in the last year of his contract. Get something for him if we get Teixera or Dunn.

2. Jesus Flores. Jesus Flores? Really? Offered to the Red Sox? This was in a report out of Boston. Flores was named as one of a dozen catchers offered to Boston by various MLB teams. Wasn't there enough termoil behind the plate last year with LoDuca and Estrada? Unless Brian Schneider is traded back to the Nats by the Mets (and even then really), trading Jesus Flores is just plain nuts.

3. Lastings Milledge. I haven't seen any specific rumors about Milledge being offered around, but there has been some press speculation that Milledge is going to be traded sooner rather than later because he is shaky as a center fielder and doesn't have enough power to be a corner outfielder. My observation of Milledge is that the criticism is true. But shouldn't we have checked this last year before trading Church and Schneider? I personally think the price for Milledge is only going to go down, so I'd quit while I was behind and get what I could. .

Oldies but goodies.
1. Jamie Carroll recently signed a new contract with the Cleveland Indians. Good for him.

2. No word at all on my favorite all time Nat Brad Wilkerson who is a free agent. He can play 1b and the outfield. He isn't that expensive. And he has a ready made fan base here in DC. I'd love Wilky to come back but, like Paul O'Neill in Cincinnati, Bowden doesn't seem to like players who do things to win games rather than just put up stats.

3. Brian Schneider is on the trading block by the Mets. Perhaps they discovered that the joys of a ground ball to second aren't what they are cracked up to be. My personal observation, which is based on nothing concrete, is that Schneider was not the clubhouse force or influence on the pitching staff in NY as he was here in DC. People love Brian Schneider here. Like Wilkerson, he's got a ready made fan base, and doesn't make too much money. I'm not convinced that Wil Nieves is an adequate second catcher. Couldn't Schneider and Flores split time?

After the Thanksgiving holiday ends, the winter meetings take place. Should be fun.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Olsen/Willingham: Change We Need. Change We Can Believe In.

Not surprisingly, Mr. Jim Bowden warmed up the hot stove early with a trade with the salary dumping Florida Marlins last night, acquiring a front line left handed starter, Scott Olsen, and a power hitting left fielder, Josh Willingham, for Emilio Bonifacio and two minor leaguers.

Hard to see any downside with this trade. The Marlins were salary dumping, and the Nats filled two needs with young, almost-arbitration eligible players. Olsen had a DUI a couple years ago, but so did Bowden. At least they aren't hiring a guard to keep him out of prison. Olsen stayed on the straight and narrow last year. I always liked him as a pitcher, seemed like he beat the Nats quite often. Right now, the rotation is probably something like this: Scott Olsen, John Lannan, Colin Balester, Jordan Zimmermann, and someone else.

Willingham beat the Nationals like a drum. He's an average fielding left fielder but hits usually 25-30 home runs a season, something desparately needed. Some speculation is that Willingham will play first base but I don't see that happening -- he hasn't played it on a big league level and there are several reports that the Nats are looking to make a free agent splash by signing a big name 1b, which, to build/rebuild/retain interest in the team, is probably necessary. See below.

Right now as I see it the outfield is Willingham/Milledge/Kearns or Dukes. But I just don't think that Dukes is being relied on by the organization to be in the lineup, and I think he may even be traded, assuming you can find someone else willing to take a chance on his volitile personality. Since arriving in DC, he's had a shouting match with the manager in Pittsburgh, angered the New York Mets twice by chanting like "softball girls" and by showing up the Mets after hitting a home run. He has a M.O. of angering opponents, and even some teammates, with his displays of...shall we say 'overenthusiasm'.

I see people on message boards discussing Willie Harris as a regular OF. Plu-eeze. Using marginal players like Harris on a regular basis is what landed us with less than 60 wins last year. Harris may not be back at all, he's a free agent, and if he is, he is likely to be a role player at best. He doesn't have the power to be a regular outfielder, he doesn't hit well enough. He had a couple of good months, but really tailed off at the end of the season.

I still believe the Nats are going for big game, and by the end of the week. Matt Holliday is gone to Oakland. Given that he has one year left in his contract, I am glad the Nats didn't bite like they did for Alfonso Soriano. Fox Sports reports the Nats may land Mark Texiera, a Maryland native and an ex-Brave (though not in Kasten's time). The report states the Nats offered Texiera 10 years at $200 million. And, of course, Adam Dunn has been in contact with the Nats too as has been widely reported. So look at this lineup and see if it doesn't look better than 2008:

Guzman SS
Milledge CF
Zimmerman 3B
Texiera/Dunn 1B
Willingham LF
Dukes/Kearns RF
Flores C
Hernandez 2B
Pitcher

The best part of the Olson/Willingham trade and the reports of free agent offers is that it is a clear signal that the management of the team is finally willing to spend some money and bring in some major league players to make the 2009 Nationals competitive on the field and interesting to watch. I grew extremely tired of the 'hope for the future' line, when the ticket bill that comes in isn't for games five years down the line, its for games to be played NEXT season. Maybe I'm not every fan, but I'd rather have a team that competes for 10 years, than one that loses 100 games on hopes of winning a World Series 10 years down the line. I waited 33 years for this team. Don't tell me to be patient anymore.

Looks like hope is coming to Washington in more ways than one in 2009. I'm looking forward to the changes that I can believe in.

Sunday, November 9, 2008

The First Base Dilemma

I started my Nats Boy Report blog last spring with an analysis of why Nick Johnson should be given the starting first baseman job over Dmitri Young. It made sense to me at the time, but it all turned out moot, because Nick lasted about six weeks and Dmitri lasted about as long as it takes to open a box of Sugar Free Ding Dongs. Kory Casto, Aaron Boone, Paul LoDuca, etc. all got significant playing time at first base. Which should, in part, explain a 59 win season.

Its pretty generally reported that the Nationals are looking for a new power hitting first baseman this off season. There have been a few names bandied about in blogs and 'trade rumors' websites. I'm no Kreskin, but here's what I see happening/not happening.

1. Paul Konerko. I have had a theory since the trading deadline last July that Paul Konerko is going to be a National in 2009.

Here's why: There were two rumors at the end of the trading deadline, just crazy enough to be true, that would support this theory: 1) It was reported that Bowden was talking to Kenny Williams about trading John Lannan and Joel Hanrahan to the Pale Hose; 2) It was also reported that Bowden had serious discussions about trading for a first baseman in July, but that the deal was not completed because the trading partner was in the pennant race and wanted to hang onto the first baseman until the off season.

If in fact both rumors were true, wouldn't it make sense that it was a Lannan and Hanrahan for Konerko deal? Nick Swisher, who has been named as a possibility for the Nats by Phil Wood in Newsday, would surely be had for less than Lannan and Hanrahan. Jim Thome is pretty much a DH these days. And, people forget, that Konerko is an ex-Red and a player that Bowden traded for in the past as GM for the Reds. Konkerko fits the profile.

Today, Newsday in NY reported that Konerko (along w/ Jim Thome) may be moved by the White Sox -- although the Nats were not mentioned as possible suitors. He also would have to waive a no trade clause, which, given the current state of the team, might be a sticking point. Also, this was before Adam Dunn was a free agent.

2. Adam Dunn. This makes so much sense. Dunn is exactly a player Bowden would like. Ex-Red. Bowden drafted him. Left handed power hitter. First baseman. Could also play left field, thus allowing Nick Johnson some ABs if and when he is healthy. Good friends with Austin Kearns.

There are reports that the Nats have already contacted Dunn's agent. Fox Sports reported in 2007 that the Nats nearly completed a deal with the Reds for Dunn at that time.

Right now, my guess is that Dunn is number one on their list, and if he is available and can be signed, this conversation is over. Konerko, and the others named below, are probably all Plan B.

3. Mark Texiera. For the life of me, I don't understand why Texiera, who is coveted by several pennant contending teams, would want to join the upstart Nats. The Angels. The Yankees. Yet I've read several places that Texiera is on the Nats radar. Supposedly its because he's from Annapolis. But since he grew up an Orioles fan, and since they are supposedly also interested in him, if location was the primary consideration, it appears that he'd go put that silly bird on his head and take their 200 million.

For what its worth, I don't think Texiera is a good idea for the Nats. He is a good player but not an impact player, not on the field or at the box office. He's a good guy, but really has anyone ever bought a ticket thinking "I want to see Mark Texiera"? And, for a team trying to build a fan base, star power should be a requisite if you're going to sink 200 million in one guy. (Alfonso Soriano, for instance...)

4. Prince Fielder. Fielder is often named as a possiblity on the official Nats website by Bill Ladson of MLB.com. Personally, I'm just happy Ladson finally stopped taking cheap shots at Brad Wilkerson.

But Fielder on the Nats? Please. He's young and he hits a lot of home runs. But he's probably 300 pounds -- how long is he going to be able to play the field? Dmitri Young proved that that formula is probably not a long term solution. The Nats probably can't spare the amount of prospects needed to acquire Fielder anyway. The Brewers, who just offered CC Sabathia $100 million, don't sound like they're ready to break their team up just yet anyway.

Any of these guys, though, would be an upgrade over Kory Casto, Dmitri Young, or Paul LoDuca, all of whom spent significant time at first base last season.

Two other free agent rumors floating around:
1. Matt Holliday. This is a guy that would be a franchise lynchpin for the Nats. The only problem is that he is on the last year of his contract, and, as we have seen with the Soriano trade, its not prudent to trade valuable members of your current team for someone who is only renting a year here and playing well only to acquire a big contract from someone else. I would trade anyone in the organization not named "Ryan Zimmerman" to get Holliday if the contract extension was worked out first. But the consensus is that he's going to St. Louis for Ryan Ludwig and some other players. I don't think we have a player not named "Ryan Zimmerman" who is as good as Ryan Ludwig, so this issue is probably moot.

2. Manny Ramirez. Believe it or not, I actually saw this reported on MLBtraderumors.com and by Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. This would be so much fun. Manny can hit. Manny is colorful. I'm pretty sure that people have bought tickets to see Manny Ramirez. It would rejuvenate the franchise in this city and put us back on the national map for a while. Manny might like coming here because it would be his show, and we play in a pretty high profile city. Can we sign Manny and Dunn?!?! I don't see it happening because I don't think Manny would want to come here. But it makes so much more sense than other more credible rumors, that I wouldn't rule it out entirely.

Friday, November 7, 2008

The New Jersey Devils

Yesterday 2009 officially began for me as I spent the day after my birthday in a little bit of Nationals-land, attending the new jersey unveiling at the ESPN Zone. The ESPN Zone events are always fun and entertaining, getting a chance to interact with the players a little bit, etc. This was a little different than the usual noontime Q&A however, because there were quite a few media types there, including Brent Haber from Channel 9 and Russ Thaler from Comcast Sports Net. Cameras were lined up everywhere. And, most encouragingly, the place was packed with fans.

The new jerseys are in my opinion really pretty cool. The road grey jersey is mighty impressive -- a throwback, and apparently intentionally so, as noted by Charlie Slowes at the event. I'm an old time Senators fan (well, I remember them as my team for my first two years following baseball and went to my first game on Memorial Day 1970 at RFK), so obviously they are appealling to types like me. (Now if only once the Lerners would sponsor a Senators throw back the clock day along with the usual annual Grays tribute.)

Another really great jersey in my opinion is the new red Sunday jersey. I was never a fan of that interlocking DC logo. But this new jersey with a curly W looks almost EXACTLY like the Cincinnati Reds Sunday jerseys from 2003 -- the curly W replacing the Wishbone C, and that's about it. I actually own an Adam Dunn 2003 Sunday Reds jersey. He'd look right at home in that new Nats gear. The other alternate jersey is kind of odd. Its a dark blue jersey with an American flag pattern in an interlocking DC logo. Its taken a lot of heat on the message boards (at least the not-as-great-as-it-used-to-be Nationals Journal at the Washington Post), but I like it. It is kind of a unique logo, almost like one of those magic eye posters that were popular a while back, you look at it one time and you see the flag, then keep staring and you see the DC. The lettering on the back is white, and on the blue jersey I think it looks really nice.

Some other uniform notes: the blue caps will apprently continue to be worn on the road even though the jerseys are red and grey. You had to imagine what this may look like since Lastings (who was wearing a new grey uni) was not wearing a blue hat (or any hat) as he laughingly strutted past the cameras in the made up runway at ESPNZone. Something tells me that they have a backlog of blue hats they want to sell before switiching to all red, because a blue hat with that jersey is just gonna look odd and mistmatched.

The road jackets from last year, which were damn sharp, are apparently being scrubbed, (as are any clothing with Washington in that 'Fuddruckers' font). The new road jackets are supposedly going to look like the jerseys. I think Charlie said the jackets would be grey, but I may be wrong about that.

The new flag logo blue jerseys will also sport a new hat that looks a lot like the 2005 batting practice cap, only with the flag DC logo. They're pretty cool.

Manny Acta and Lastings Milledge were both at the ESPNZone as part of the event, but, interestingly enough, Elijah Dukes, although advertised, was not. Someone in the media (or on the team) should find out the explanation; missing a high profile fan event was just not cool if there was not a good reason for it.

Manny gave an approximately 15 minute powder puff interview to Charlie, then after the fa-fa-fashion show, the guys took questions with the media and then signed autographs for the fans. They were in good spirits, and, as always, both Manny and Lastings are very conversational and fan friendly in meets and greets like this. When Manny saw me trying to work the camera function of my new IPhone, he quickly grabbed Lastings and they both struck a pose. It was pretty funny. I've posted that shot here.

Jerseys and hats are, of course, available in the team store, so I dutifly made the three stops on the green line to pick them up (a late birthday gift). There were no packed houses when I went there to lay down the coin though -- it was about as empty as RFK in July 2004. I was pretty amazed that they had authentic player jerseys there in all styles -- of course at authentic jersey prices, but still, I'd rather have a choice at a Zimmerman than just a blank back. Interestingly enough, the jerseys in the store were better representations of the new gear than the fashion show at the Zone, where models from the Nat Pack modelled the ladies jersey equivalent of the new gear.

It was a happy day after birthday.