The First Base Dilemma

I started my Nats Boy Report blog last spring with an analysis of why Nick Johnson should be given the starting first baseman job over Dmitri Young. It made sense to me at the time, but it all turned out moot, because Nick lasted about six weeks and Dmitri lasted about as long as it takes to open a box of Sugar Free Ding Dongs. Kory Casto, Aaron Boone, Paul LoDuca, etc. all got significant playing time at first base. Which should, in part, explain a 59 win season.

Its pretty generally reported that the Nationals are looking for a new power hitting first baseman this off season. There have been a few names bandied about in blogs and 'trade rumors' websites. I'm no Kreskin, but here's what I see happening/not happening.

1. Paul Konerko. I have had a theory since the trading deadline last July that Paul Konerko is going to be a National in 2009.

Here's why: There were two rumors at the end of the trading deadline, just crazy enough to be true, that would support this theory: 1) It was reported that Bowden was talking to Kenny Williams about trading John Lannan and Joel Hanrahan to the Pale Hose; 2) It was also reported that Bowden had serious discussions about trading for a first baseman in July, but that the deal was not completed because the trading partner was in the pennant race and wanted to hang onto the first baseman until the off season.

If in fact both rumors were true, wouldn't it make sense that it was a Lannan and Hanrahan for Konerko deal? Nick Swisher, who has been named as a possibility for the Nats by Phil Wood in Newsday, would surely be had for less than Lannan and Hanrahan. Jim Thome is pretty much a DH these days. And, people forget, that Konerko is an ex-Red and a player that Bowden traded for in the past as GM for the Reds. Konkerko fits the profile.

Today, Newsday in NY reported that Konerko (along w/ Jim Thome) may be moved by the White Sox -- although the Nats were not mentioned as possible suitors. He also would have to waive a no trade clause, which, given the current state of the team, might be a sticking point. Also, this was before Adam Dunn was a free agent.

2. Adam Dunn. This makes so much sense. Dunn is exactly a player Bowden would like. Ex-Red. Bowden drafted him. Left handed power hitter. First baseman. Could also play left field, thus allowing Nick Johnson some ABs if and when he is healthy. Good friends with Austin Kearns.

There are reports that the Nats have already contacted Dunn's agent. Fox Sports reported in 2007 that the Nats nearly completed a deal with the Reds for Dunn at that time.

Right now, my guess is that Dunn is number one on their list, and if he is available and can be signed, this conversation is over. Konerko, and the others named below, are probably all Plan B.

3. Mark Texiera. For the life of me, I don't understand why Texiera, who is coveted by several pennant contending teams, would want to join the upstart Nats. The Angels. The Yankees. Yet I've read several places that Texiera is on the Nats radar. Supposedly its because he's from Annapolis. But since he grew up an Orioles fan, and since they are supposedly also interested in him, if location was the primary consideration, it appears that he'd go put that silly bird on his head and take their 200 million.

For what its worth, I don't think Texiera is a good idea for the Nats. He is a good player but not an impact player, not on the field or at the box office. He's a good guy, but really has anyone ever bought a ticket thinking "I want to see Mark Texiera"? And, for a team trying to build a fan base, star power should be a requisite if you're going to sink 200 million in one guy. (Alfonso Soriano, for instance...)

4. Prince Fielder. Fielder is often named as a possiblity on the official Nats website by Bill Ladson of MLB.com. Personally, I'm just happy Ladson finally stopped taking cheap shots at Brad Wilkerson.

But Fielder on the Nats? Please. He's young and he hits a lot of home runs. But he's probably 300 pounds -- how long is he going to be able to play the field? Dmitri Young proved that that formula is probably not a long term solution. The Nats probably can't spare the amount of prospects needed to acquire Fielder anyway. The Brewers, who just offered CC Sabathia $100 million, don't sound like they're ready to break their team up just yet anyway.

Any of these guys, though, would be an upgrade over Kory Casto, Dmitri Young, or Paul LoDuca, all of whom spent significant time at first base last season.

Two other free agent rumors floating around:
1. Matt Holliday. This is a guy that would be a franchise lynchpin for the Nats. The only problem is that he is on the last year of his contract, and, as we have seen with the Soriano trade, its not prudent to trade valuable members of your current team for someone who is only renting a year here and playing well only to acquire a big contract from someone else. I would trade anyone in the organization not named "Ryan Zimmerman" to get Holliday if the contract extension was worked out first. But the consensus is that he's going to St. Louis for Ryan Ludwig and some other players. I don't think we have a player not named "Ryan Zimmerman" who is as good as Ryan Ludwig, so this issue is probably moot.

2. Manny Ramirez. Believe it or not, I actually saw this reported on MLBtraderumors.com and by Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. This would be so much fun. Manny can hit. Manny is colorful. I'm pretty sure that people have bought tickets to see Manny Ramirez. It would rejuvenate the franchise in this city and put us back on the national map for a while. Manny might like coming here because it would be his show, and we play in a pretty high profile city. Can we sign Manny and Dunn?!?! I don't see it happening because I don't think Manny would want to come here. But it makes so much more sense than other more credible rumors, that I wouldn't rule it out entirely.